ACUS11 KWNS 102008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102008=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-NVZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Areas affected...Eastern OR...southeast WA...and southwest ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102008Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany
the stronger storms as they spread northward this afternoon into the
evening. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of OR,
regional VWP is sampling 30-40 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly
flow overspreading eastern OR into southeast WA and southwest ID.
Here, filtered diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints
has reduced convective inhibition and is supporting isolated
convective development. While low-level flow is weak, the enhanced mid/upper-level flow is contributing to a long/straight hodograph
(30-40 kt effective shear) supportive of splitting supercell
structures. The primary concern will be isolated large hail and
locally severe downdraft winds, though the threat appears too
localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8nn0m7UEWodONYBVUaNEm-GJBG3HfdtZJtrTKlc-6spmkjZlR0gy7OGY3dCc_RKkeGtlx3yOY= 84ne62se1gAw6AFHKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 42601648 42061674 41961821 42081897 42961923 43411933
44091912 45011917 45911925 46161892 46401808 46401707
45901683 43941666 42601648=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 212250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212250=20
GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-220015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Northern Alabama and northern Georgia.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536...538...

Valid 212250Z - 220015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536, 538
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorms have developed and
continue to move east-southeast across northern Alabama and northern
Georgia. These storms are moving through an airmass with 1500 to
2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per SPC mesoanalysis) and effective shear around
25 knots (per FFC VWP). This should continue to support multicell
organization. The threat should start to wane after sunset once the
boundary layer starts to cool, but a moist boundary layer, with mid
70s dewpoints, may be sufficient for some threat to linger after
dark. The warm airmass and only marginal shear should keep the
large-hail threat muted, with damaging wind gusts as the primary
threat.

..Bentley.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gD2UDRhZlDtlF2c6RQ7mKB0ecSGHKEygCbd-P-OIPEXu4ScKpwNVcdKJ7EkBTWhGlRjkAsUS= iZialomy5XWGSPxYSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 32748829 33388824 33648754 34048704 34348675 34878650
35178567 35168390 34638317 33898258 33078235 32528268
32368666 32748829=20


=3D =3D =3D
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