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ACUS11 KWNS 221116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221115=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-221245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of coastal/southeast TX into much of
western/northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...59...

Valid 221115Z - 221245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58, 59 continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind an isolated tornado threat should
continue this morning. A new Tornado Watch will likely be issued
between 12-13Z (7-8 AM CDT).

DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex has recently consolidated west
of the Houston metro. Recent radar velocity data from KHGX suggest
that damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity in
the near term as it moves across coastal southeast TX. A 50-60 kt
southerly low-level jet present along/ahead of the ongoing
convection is fostering impressive low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH
estimates from KHGX VWPs over the past hour rapidly increasing above
400 m2/s2. Given this enhanced low-level shear and enlarged
hodographs in the 0-3 km layer, embedded circulations within the
line may produce brief, isolated tornadoes. Farther northeast across
LA, a moist low-level airmass is in place ahead of a band of
thunderstorms. MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and 50+ kt of effective
bulk shear present across the warm sector are expected to support
continued updraft organization this morning.

The cluster moving northeastward across southeast TX will likely
continue to pose a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat as it
spreads into western LA in a few hours. More discrete
(supercellular) storms may also form ahead of the cluster across the
open warm sector in LA along subtle pre-frontal confluence bands
given the strong warm advection/lift associated with the southerly
low-level jet. If this occurs, then they would pose a greater threat
for tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch will likely be issued before 13Z
(8 AM CDT) across parts of coastal southeast TX into much of
western/northern LA to address this persistent severe threat.

..Gleason/Grams.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urmYShH0SG94PsLve5AuO3MdTqHjMgaYhhGhilLfn0yYLn7nJ0hoAukXj-RamZxXQvWqUyUv$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29039620 30119584 31939355 32949204 32959126 32319119
31569156 30209213 29609432 28859546 29039620=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 220034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220034=20
MNZ000-220530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Areas affected...Northwest into north central MN

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 220034Z - 220530Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour will spread
northeastward into northwest and north central MN through 06z.

DISCUSSION...A midlevel shortwave trough and associated vorticity
lobes will continue to move east-northeastward from central SD
toward northern MN through the overnight hours. Associated surface cyclogenesis is underway across northeast SD, though the primary
surface warm sector is confined to extreme southern MN. A zone of
warm advection and differential CVA will continue to support
precipitation development northeastward from southeast ND into MN
tonight. Along and northwest of the surface cyclone track, wet bulb
profiles will remain below 0 C, supporting snow as the primary
precipitation type. As the column saturates, snowfall rates of 1 to
1.5 inches per hour this evening will spread into northwest MN, and
continue northeastward into north central MN through 06z. The
snowfall rates are supported by recent observations in southeast ND.

..Thompson.. 03/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6z43i9rEh4_ycS6yqovyZMqvAqYOmrvxqfLXVK5-mGjjZnWoqj1k9sq8s9s_4_ICUDB3Dm4ss= -QjDOOr34Iq_HFfuWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48499534 48799465 48599402 48659315 48019314 47179389
46539485 46479558 46689606 47369626 47859607 48499534=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 261808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261808=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Areas affected...much of lower Michigan...northeastern
Indiana...northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261808Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increasingly organized band of showers, and developing thunderstorms, may be accompanied by increasing potential for strong
to locally severe surface gusts by 4-5 PM EDT. It is still not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Weak destabilization within a narrow pre-frontal
corridor of low-level warming and moistening, coupled with
large-scale ascent aided by warm advection, has contributed to
increasing showers across western lower Michigan southward toward
the Indianapolis IN vicinity. Some lightning has recently been
noted southeast of South Bend, but low-level lapse rates are still
relatively modest and the moistening is only contributing to very
weak CAPE.

This may be slow to improve, but breaks in cloud cover may allow for
at least some continuing insolation during the next few hours.=20
Perhaps more notably, within the left exit region of an intensifying
mid-level jet (in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb) nosing
north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, strengthening
low-level frontogenetic forcing is forecast along the eastward
advancing front across central lower Michigan through the
Indiana/Ohio border area by 20-21Z. This may support a
consolidating and deepening band of convection with increasing
potential to produce lightning.=20=20

In the presence of fairly strong (and strongly sheared)
south-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow (including 40-50+ kt
mean ambient flow in the lowest 3-6 km AGL), activity may become
increasingly organized. Downward mixing of momentum may contribute
to potentially damaging wind gusts reaching the surface in
northeastward surging segments, while the line advances eastward
toward the lower Great Lakes region through late afternoon.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8BEQNIT5tT_M7xaUGqWSk6VW4WNb7v1GZ148C4q0N2k6BPR8dGP3e0lSrpsdiWBcFHKPr3Uxq= uoNtPVU8gUhlGlp2BA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 40428544 42978529 44938539 44928356 43948281 41398341
40408392 40428544=20


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