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ACUS11 KWNS 061018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061018=20
OHZ000-INZ000-061115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Areas affected...West-Central/Central OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32...

Valid 061018Z - 061115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gust remain possible across
west-central and central OH.

DISCUSSION...Overall intensity of the convective line moving
eastward across northwest/west-central OH has decreased over the
past half hour, as evidenced by less lightning and reflectivity
structure. Even so, a few damaging wind gusts still remain possible
when downward momentum transfer brings the very strong low to
mid-level flow to the surface. Most probable location for a strong
gust or two appears to be over far west-central OH (Darke and Miami
County vicinity) where the line still has a bit more intensity.=20

The diminishing trend is forecast to continue over the next hour as
the line continues eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment.

..Mosier.. 03/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q2g7vGMf0r-qm2BlJv3XJOpdxjqv61OSgyNvjprty1-hWIt9bsZ7hDETbeVKaa_TLR2HCXGI$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON 40958328 41098299 40948267 40638274 40328311 40078355
39898414 39788502 39928517 40118504 40378446 40518405
40718361 40958328=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 271800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271759=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-271930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern into central Ohio and far north-central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271759Z - 271930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in tornado and damaging wind potential is
possible for parts of southwestern into central Ohio. A watch will
be considered this afternoon for parts of this region.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped, cellular convection continues across parts
of Indiana this afternoon. Storms in central/northern Indiana, where
surface winds remain backed, have shown signs of rotation. as these
storms continue to the east into Ohio, some increase in tornado and
damaging wind threat may materialize. WSR-88D and TDWR VAD profiles
in Ohio show enlarged low-level hodographs with very strong winds in
the lowest 2-3 km. The primary question this afternoon will be the
degree of surface-based destabilization that can occur into Ohio.
Cloud cover has been maintained across the state. However, some
clearing has occurred in southwestern Ohio where temperatures have
risen into the mid 50s F. Based on current observations and forecast
soundings, mid 50s F to near 60 F temperatures would be sufficient
for surface-based convection. Given the potential, a watch will need
to be considered this afternoon.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Y96d0-JJZZW-eOYiG9S4Kcpg-2bMAaJhZcoQnmSL4-9HFrurKN9CZzd_jDCEHGKKXONYRQRT= b8sOU7MTjMl4wpbmcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 38578332 38568378 38748484 39268527 39538531 40518507
40558468 40218338 39538304 38978311 38578332=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 082113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082112=20
TXZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Areas affected...Parts of north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082112Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong storms are possible through late
afternoon, with an isolated hail threat.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near the
southwest Metroplex, with building cumulus noted along a cold front
that is moving southeastward across the region. Despite rather
modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating and relatively cool
midlevel temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg
immediately ahead of the front. Rather strong flow above 3 km AGL is
resulting in effective shear of 40+ kt, and a couple more organized
storms (including potential for a transient/marginal supercell) may
evolve out of developing convection. Weak buoyancy will tend to
limit the overall hail risk, but isolated instances of hail between
0.75-1.5 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out through late
afternoon. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates could support
outflow gusts of 50-60 mph if any stronger storms can be sustained.=20

With the threat expected to remain rather limited in magnitude and
areal extent, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4p-oN8KlMUp89XkryQwmiUzISlkii3nrSvShwHCUdfVJTyLhI0NmYoxcT5GoJGKVm506Q6ED0= S9OBmGUyuzlJFuG05c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON 32139754 32649709 32819656 32819624 32399614 31969620
31709627 31369644 31249681 31469747 31789755 32139754=20


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