• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1664

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 07, 2022 19:38:25
    ACUS11 KWNS 071938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071937=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1664
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of CO...far northeast NM...and southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071937Z - 072200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
    across southeast CO and along the I-25 corridor this afternoon and
    early evening. Isolated severe gusts and marginal hail are the main
    concerns, though a landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations reveal an ENE/WSW-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary extending from west-central KS
    into southeast CO. Efficient diurnal heating/destabilization of a
    moist airmass (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest low-level convergence
    along the boundary is resulting in deepening boundary-layer cumulus
    and isolated convective development. While deep-layer flow/shear is
    weak across southeast CO, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a
    deeply mixed boundary layer could support isolated severe gusts and
    marginal hail with the stronger/deeper updrafts -- especially where
    any cold pool congealing occurs. In addition, a landspout tornado or
    two will be possible with any deeper updrafts that maintain
    residence time along/near the boundary where surface vorticity
    should be enhanced.=20

    Farther north along the I-25 corridor, cumulus continues to deepen
    over the higher terrain, and isolated to widely scattered convection
    should spread eastward later this afternoon as inhibition continues
    to erode. Locally severe gusts and marginal hail will also be the
    primary concerns, though a few organized clusters will be possible
    given 30-40 kt of effective shear over northern CO. Currently, the
    severe threat appears too localized/marginal for a watch, though
    convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VYAsHl1a4pVNZcZpKjzT-MolfdpTTj-vx8WmMcTnAkW27oQqL2F2ykybp-fCD08b8KN0W1hk= J1h0LE0ZPyPJ70Wjus$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38590339 38400307 38260261 38490200 38500149 38270122
    37790123 37510140 37200180 37060213 36900264 36840330
    36880435 37100480 37720518 39270539 40020543 40660541
    40920529 40980482 40930448 40430433 39510434 39050401
    38820376 38590339=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 21, 2023 16:20:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 211620
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211620=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-211745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1664
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1120 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY...CT...central/western
    MA...southern VT/NH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 211620Z - 211745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase this afternoon, with some
    threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of a weakening convective band now moving
    across northern New England, showers have developed across parts of
    western CT/MA, with convection recently becoming sufficiently deep
    to support lightning across southwest CT. An increase in storm
    coverage is expected into this afternoon from southeast NY into
    parts of New England, as a jet maximum moves through the base of the
    base of the upper-level trough, and related large-scale ascent
    spreads over the region.=20

    Diurnal heating of a moist low-level environment will support
    continued destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially
    increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, moderate midlevel
    flow will support effective shear in the 30-40 kt range, sufficient
    for organized clusters and perhaps a few marginal supercells. Some damaging-wind threat is expected to evolve as storms mature,
    especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse
    rates can occur this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates are generally
    weak across the region, but buoyancy will be sufficient to support
    an isolated hail threat with any sustained supercells. Also, surface
    winds may remain locally backed across parts of New England, to the
    east of a surface trough across eastern NY. This may support
    sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief tornado threat.=20

    While the magnitude of the severe threat may remain somewhat limited
    across the region, coverage of organized storms may become
    sufficient for watch issuance this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6oGdWZBl2cSlxwOENwgs3gvBB0e1e5cmb5LC7nx3QvFqFmMzH0DuFqpLUkUCkpzUSwb-8gpcl= 8FL1TQwrPNgY73zWow$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42117414 42767369 43137337 43207235 42967196 42677175
    42217173 41907182 41527211 41297302 41267361 41567393
    42117414=20


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