ACUS11 KWNS 070003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070003=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and far Western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070003Z - 070130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized wind/hail threat will be possible with the
strongest storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows widespread convective development
along the front range that has largely remained
transient/disorganized thus far, but is beginning to locally
intensify as well as showing signs of cold pool development/cell
merging. This activity is gradually propagating eastward where
richer low-level moisture resides, associated with increasing
instability (MLCAPE approaching 2500-3000 J/kg). Despite these
favorable thermodynamic characteristics, vertical shear remains
rather weak across the region, perhaps approaching 30 kt of
effective bulk shear. Thus, a localized wind/hail threat appears
possible this evening with the strongest storms. If upscale growth
of the current activity can occur, a more persistent but still
localized wind threat may emerge, particularly if this activity can
propagate into northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas where the
axis of greater instability may support such a threat. For now,
however, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 08/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-aBzJftj3Fjf8znxBE7LHcFYXz_T19YATAfKi2ZbGqrXiO8MH-k1C0TvSxw1drZNgiksm2GVc= A3yb33kFsWIXxRG9Mw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37940207 37690378 38610421 39370443 40020331 40260224
39750132 37940207=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 211232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211232=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast KS...Northeast OK...Extreme Southwest
MO...Far Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

Valid 211232Z - 211400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line, which is capable of producing
damaging gusts, is expected to continue progressing eastward for at
least the next two hours, with some additional development possible
along its southern flank.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined mesoscale convective vortex, generated
by last night's convective system, is centered just northeast of PNC
in north-central OK. Outflow associated with this vortex arcs from
near IDP in far southeast KS to near TQH in northeast OK and then
back southwestward through central OK into northwest TX. Strong
thunderstorms are still ongoing along the northern portion of this
outflow (from far southeast KS through northeast OK), where gusts
from 35 to 40 kt have been reported over the past hour.=20

Updraft strength, as determined by echo tops and 9 km CAPPI data,
has remained fairly consistent through the line. A localized
intensification occurred within the line just north to TQH, where
the line intersected some preceding development. Overall expectation
is for the line to continue eastward over the next two hours, with
the potential for some additional development along its southern
flank near the stalled frontal boundary. Damaging wind gusts will
remain possible.

..Mosier.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7iV6m_OqpGIVr4gbzEmSYRdcxa3Vn1fFqElBFssegec0FPCvjoiHPaQB1lp0r8t33IhLknDed= 08u7O54e67tewjon6g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36859572 37109608 37479599 37279502 36879453 35909390
35389388 35179469 35529539 36259535 36859572=20


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