ACUS11 KWNS 062048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062048=20
WYZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062048Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
will increase through the afternoon. Current thinking is that the
severe threat could remain too isolated for a watch, though trends
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Along and west of the Laramie Mountains in southeast
WY, visible satellite imagery shows an expanding/deepening cumulus
field amid veered surface winds -- indicative of deep boundary-layer mixing/destabilization. Within the deeply mixed airmass, isolated
convective development is underway over Natrona County, and 40-50 kt
of 0-6 km bulk shear (per the RIW VWP) is already supporting
supercellular characteristics with this activity.=20

As the steep low-level lapse rates associated with the diurnally
deepening boundary layer continue to impinge on recycled moisture
(upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) and east-southeasterly upslope flow
over eastern WY, convective intensity/coverage should gradually
increase through the afternoon. Long/generally straight hodographs
and weak large-scale ascent should initially support
discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of large
hail and severe gusts given a deep sub-cloud layer and modest
midlevel lapse rates. With time, continued cell splits/mergers and a
modest increase in large-scale ascent ahead of a weak midlevel wave
could favor increasing convective coverage. Currently, it is unclear
if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective trends
will be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rzm4wFx5uQ3iS5Ly1XPNlCg-yDlW8KxW8w1H8DYk7b_3s4_rX_1Za-IlTM8ALrdn75hXg-_E= etBdvGpmHi5B5dPbPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON 42310564 42650625 42760680 42740732 42880776 43290770
43570737 44140639 44110562 43910499 43550468 43060454
42100432 41090431 41040466 41120498 41510517 41930538
42310564=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 210827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210826=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-211000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...NJ...Central/Eastern MD...DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...532...

Valid 210826Z - 211000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530, 532
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across NJ,
central/eastern MD, and DE for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Long-duration convective line continues to push eastward/southeastward across far southeastern PA and northeastern
MD at 25-30 kt. A few sites gusted around 30-35 kt as the line moved
through, and this gust strength will likely be maintained over the
next hour or so across northern/central portions of the line (i.e.
portion of the line entering NJ) where the shear is more orthogonal
to the line. Additional strengthening of this portion of the line is
unlikely given only modest buoyancy downstream and limited
deep-layer shear.=20

Additional development has occurred farther south into more of
central and eastern MD, and a few stronger gusts have been noted
here as well as cold pool amalgamate. Isolated damaging gusts are
possible for the next hour or two as the portion of the line
progresses southeastward into more of the Eastern Shore.

..Mosier.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_EPB3PdYwxP0kDRSQRkrZnBqnWohTXd9-XCQMpk-ozFSpQpv1AU6aFZgz7O8KQfl38HJ22gsT= gD5VSMiOvVCqRVYtUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 38417706 38857701 39617612 39917551 40517500 40717465
40347382 39387428 38567541 38417706=20


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