ACUS11 KWNS 052058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052057=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...Central into northeast SD...Southeast
ND...Northwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052057Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated
hail are expected to develop by early evening. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway this afternoon along and
ahead of a surface boundary draped from southwest SD into northwest
MN. Some increase in boundary-layer cumulus has been noted over the
last hour across parts of central/southwest SD and also across
southeast ND, and continued heating will result in decreasing MLCINH
and an increasing potential for storm development along the boundary
by late this afternoon or early evening.=20

Once storms develop, MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg will support
vigorous updrafts. This region is on the southern fringe of stronger
midlevel flow, with effective shear generally expected in the 30-40
kt range (greater with northward extent) by early evening. Initial
storm development may occur within the very hot environment across
SD, where the thermodynamic environment will be favorable for severe
wind gusts with any stronger clusters, along with some potential for
isolated hail. Development is also eventually expected into
southeast ND and northwest MN, where somewhat stronger deep-layer
shear will support a conditional supercell risk, with a threat of
hail, locally severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado.=20

Given the threats described above, issuance of one or more watches
is possible across the region by early evening.

..Dean/Hart.. 08/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6t7BYCw7nrac_hBdVmmNKxNyiHhsv5pVbDtjB_RV6crbpcNvtUaqEXLQQF7LCU4mofpo8Fnr-= ZHOuBP7ZtNsoeGa6fw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43310057 43140162 43060239 44410165 45500016 46429853
47239736 48269550 48249444 47989396 47549476 46589609
46089666 45299775 44109878 43479949 43310057=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 210207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210207=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...much of central New York and Pennsylvania...as
wellas northwest New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

Valid 210207Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat persists across mainly central and
northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. If storms
maintain strength, a new watch could be needed for additional areas
of eastern Pennsylvania and New York.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends from Lake Ontario
southward into northern PA, extending west/southwestward into
western PA and central OH along the cold front. The primary outflow
surge is currently pushing east across the northern half of PA to
the PA/NY border where the line has a more favorable north-south
orientation with respect to the winds aloft.

The air mass remains sufficiently unstable at around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, with the greatest surface theta-e over southeast PA where
dewpoints exceed 68 F. In addition, gradual cooling aloft will
continue tonight as the upper trough nears. Given the level of storm organization with the line of storms, and 850 mb southwesterlies of
20-30 kt, the threat for damaging gusts is expected to persist into
parts of eastern PA, southern NY and perhaps northwest NJ.

..Jewell.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kRsMVGY0fJFH55PBxeXc2cDunsWRkraRAGJHpc6_RCnfJtJ7gETGPdzuGbZ-eYAfFsVEG9ht= cNBb3x7v0ndR2iBL1I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 43397769 43597686 43507612 43237541 42707487 42097470
41027473 40157485 40017495 39927509 40017576 40197640
40427734 40697802 40827809 41077793 41507749 42037729
42497721 42997728 43247758 43397769=20


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