ACUS11 KWNS 042139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042139=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-042345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022
Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central South
Dakota into western and north-central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 042139Z - 042345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms may evolve over the next couple
of hours across portions of southwestern South Dakota and western
Nebraska. Risk for gusty/damaging winds will exist locally, along
with some hail risk. WW is not expected, due to very isolated
coverage and limited temporal risk that is anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show
TCU/attempts at CB development across portions of southwestern South
Dakota, and southward into the Nebraska Panhandle. The convection
is occurring within a zone of low-level convergence, where an axis
of moderate instability (1500 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is
indicated.
However, this region lies within an area of larger-scale ridging
aloft, with only a very subtle cyclonic disturbance moving
east-southeastward across South Dakota at this time. As such,
rather weak large-scale ascent suggests that storm coverage will be
isolated, and should diminish this evening with the onset of diurnal stabilization.
Until then, given deep-layer flow that veers with height, and
increases to about 30 kt at mid levels, some organization/updraft
rotation can be expected with any sustained storm, and thus an
associated brief/local severe risk. WW issuance is not anticipated,
due to the expectations of limited areal and temporal nature of the
risk.
..Goss/Guyer.. 08/04/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VR1wHlMcPrDa-aGJIqFEXIMrXJknqDRPsspxVHwTeWTd6RTP0xMRdAY_ZuH8kp_cUc01lxPo= SO0JhjxL-NQn-Lth3c$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 44310347 43800176 43549967 42839943 41410084 41090249
41150442 41990386 42730320 43500358 44090378 44310347=20
=3D =3D =3D
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