• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 04, 2022 21:39:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 042139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042139=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-042345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central South
    Dakota into western and north-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042139Z - 042345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms may evolve over the next couple
    of hours across portions of southwestern South Dakota and western
    Nebraska. Risk for gusty/damaging winds will exist locally, along
    with some hail risk. WW is not expected, due to very isolated
    coverage and limited temporal risk that is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show
    TCU/attempts at CB development across portions of southwestern South
    Dakota, and southward into the Nebraska Panhandle. The convection
    is occurring within a zone of low-level convergence, where an axis
    of moderate instability (1500 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is
    indicated.

    However, this region lies within an area of larger-scale ridging
    aloft, with only a very subtle cyclonic disturbance moving
    east-southeastward across South Dakota at this time. As such,
    rather weak large-scale ascent suggests that storm coverage will be
    isolated, and should diminish this evening with the onset of diurnal stabilization.

    Until then, given deep-layer flow that veers with height, and
    increases to about 30 kt at mid levels, some organization/updraft
    rotation can be expected with any sustained storm, and thus an
    associated brief/local severe risk. WW issuance is not anticipated,
    due to the expectations of limited areal and temporal nature of the
    risk.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VR1wHlMcPrDa-aGJIqFEXIMrXJknqDRPsspxVHwTeWTd6RTP0xMRdAY_ZuH8kp_cUc01lxPo= SO0JhjxL-NQn-Lth3c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 44310347 43800176 43549967 42839943 41410084 41090249
    41150442 41990386 42730320 43500358 44090378 44310347=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 22:19:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 202219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202219=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

    Valid 202219Z - 210015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
    continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon
    into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado
    threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near
    Lamar to northeast of Pueblo.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into
    southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast
    Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong
    northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
    (maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north)
    will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts,
    large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface
    boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar
    imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more
    enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this
    afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time,
    storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a
    consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe
    wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat.

    For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat
    will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air
    just to the east.

    ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4a4ONjaZWkPmjE7NYnDEgUT2osj5Z1jvG0wZxxCFxuQHPAY3TwF0gEtkYyYokUwCmlWqF9m2L= dHW-Sru_jePGl7HjHI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275
    37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 22:36:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 202236
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202235 COR
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

    Valid 202235Z - 210015Z

    CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
    continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon
    into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado
    threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near
    Lamar to northeast of Pueblo.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into
    southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast
    Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong
    northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
    (maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north)
    will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts,
    large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface
    boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar
    imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more
    enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this
    afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time,
    storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a
    consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe
    wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat.

    For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat
    will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air
    just to the east.

    ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-UMWuyF9cxL1iLUu4S47kpOPR4HR7NONoN48XOcc8TQkCzIK_UlkBvm3HN7RRy39CsTzLaFB= nA_f_QwbebBF0eowAw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275
    37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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