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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 03, 2022 18:32:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 031832
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031832=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-032000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

    Areas affected...western/central Illinois into portions of eastern
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 031832Z - 032000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Afternoon thunderstorm development along decaying outflow
    appears likely this afternoon. Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible. A
    weather watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1825 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
    developing cumulus towers along a differential heating/prior outflow
    boundary from early morning convective debris across east-central IL
    into MO. East of the clouds strong heating (surface temperatures
    90F+) are quickly eroding the remaining inhibition. With surface
    dewpoints observed above 70 F, 3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE will support
    vigorous updrafts. Along the southern fringes of stronger
    westerlies, vertical shear of 20-25 kt is only marginally supportive
    of storm organization. Regardless, the very unstable airmass and
    marginal effective shear may result in a few stronger multicell
    clusters capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail from
    this afternoon into this evening. Consolidation of any stronger
    clusters that do form may result in a locally greater risk for
    severe wind gusts given the magnitude of buoyancy though this is
    uncertain.=20

    The highest confidence in strong/severe storm coverage at the moment
    is across western portions of IL where CI is already underway.
    Additional development seems likely over the next hour as remaining
    inhibition is quite limited from SPC mesoanalysis. Farther south and
    west into MO, a couple more hours of heating may be required to
    support free convection given the weaker forcing for ascent and
    greater cloud cover. While it remains somewhat uncertain when the
    severe risk may increase, convective trends will be monitored for a
    likely weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mmJ3hP6TzbGPkp6qJ7j_pIo2WgbOCRRWcbUegpZ7X5LF4b2sAUKlCvXFo0Ct4vMVyorWF5t5= nYZoeN-xaOaORrPQrY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

    LAT...LON 39538874 39128929 38838971 38179060 38039100 37989144
    38019188 38199227 38589233 39079232 39489214 39649202
    40199103 40499044 40719001 40868965 40928925 40928892
    40698846 40538833 40308833 40128832 39858837 39538874=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 16:51:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 201651
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201651=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-201815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...MO Bootheel into parts of TN and southern KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 201651Z - 201815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and isolated hail may
    persist this afternoon, though coverage and intensity remain
    somewhat uncertain. Watch issuance remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 1645 UTC, a small bowing storm cluster is ongoing
    across western KY, with other storms gradually increasing in
    coverage ahead of this cluster into northern middle TN, and also
    farther west toward the MO Bootheel. This convection is ongoing in
    advance of a weakening storm cluster and remnant MCV across southern
    MO.=20

    The small bowing cluster has produced several reports of wind
    damage, but other storms have generally remained sub-severe thus
    far. Downstream of the ongoing storms, very rich low-level moisture
    is supporting MLCAPE of greater than 2500 J/kg (away from outflow),
    with midlevel westerly flow of 40-50 kt (as noted on regional VWPs)
    providing sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization.
    However, with strongly veered low-level flow, potential for
    additional storm development into the more unstable environment
    remains uncertain. The greatest short-term threat will likely
    continue to be with the ongoing bowing cluster, which has grown some
    in size over the last 30-60 minutes.=20

    Depending on short-term trends regarding storm intensity and
    coverage, watch issuance remains possible for parts of the region
    this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_oMeta-AIQzLmgxXWOTBvbWF2qpCa28-HFBKC8H5DBhIIRnDkESTjLtXo8SuXUgdoMJuawfSC= KQu4HFNrUr4QmiThFk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36388976 36748798 37208741 37068625 36548512 36348489
    35598491 35378506 35138537 35708731 36068908 36188996
    36388976=20


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