ACUS11 KWNS 031814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031813=20
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...Chicago metro...southern Lake
Michigan...Michiana...southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031813Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected
through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed for most of the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field and developing thunderstorms over northern IL, which is
located to the east of an MCV and cirrus canopy. Surface conditions
south of a west-east oriented outflow boundary/differential heating
zone are in the lower 90s with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. RAP
forecast soundings indicate a very unstable airmass (3500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) has developed from northern IL eastward across northern IN
and southern Lower MI. KLOT VAD data shows 30-40 kt southwesterly
flow in the 2-6 km AGL layer. Given the background wind profile
supporting organized multicells and a very unstable airmass, it
seems likely that storms will intensify this afternoon with strong
to severe gusts (50-70 mph) becoming the primary hazard (hail
possible with the strongest cores). Widely scattered wind damage
will most likely focus with the more robust clusters as they move
east from northern IL into Lower MI.

..Smith/Grams.. 08/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QHv64FtgNtl1hc5AaNunlf_EGujrNtKWMX8Vu-MKphB9PkMQjmTiGouTlmea9c1joZx9XuVS= dd1xuHRAFBdWtRay4o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 42178827 43208526 43658252 42978232 42168302 41398776
41588819 41878833 42178827=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 201438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201438=20
MIZ000-201615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Parts of lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 201438Z - 201615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity is expected to increase with
time. Eventual watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are moving into northwest lower MI
this morning, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough currently
moving across the upper Great Lakes. While instability is not overly
strong, diurnal heating will eventually result in MLCAPE increasing
into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. Favorable
large-scale ascent and sufficient deep-layer shear will support an
increase in storm coverage and intensity with time along/ahead of an approaching cold front.=20

The ongoing storm cluster may continue to spread eastward with an
increasing damaging-wind threat, while somewhat more discrete
development will be possible along its southwestward flank,
including the potential for a few supercells this afternoon with a
threat of hail, locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.
Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon in order to cover these
threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5CgF_xIYL0IocqAkEg8TWWmrBJR2NpaDOgFKYWIjM652QlajA3DgoHUCIC2IKR8S5ZLmCEq6= 7xEkdPHgbSbMqwKVqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44998571 45408469 45328414 44758376 43138371 41938362
41888636 43658647 44108615 44998571=20


=3D =3D =3D
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