• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1640

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 03, 2022 15:43:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 031543
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031542=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-031715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1640
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

    Areas affected...eastern IA...southern WI...west-central Lower
    Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031542Z - 031715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe gusts are
    possible through the early afternoon from eastern IA across southern
    WI and into west-central Lower MI. Uncertainty is above average
    with regards to storm-scale evolution in the presence of a very
    moist/weakly capped airmass.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several small thunderstorm clusters
    extending from eastern IA (located immediately downstream of an MCV)
    into southern WI. KCID (Cedar Rapids, IA) recently observed a 46-kt
    gust at 1521 UTC. The area from eastern IA near the IA/WI/IL border
    eastward into west-central Lower MI has been relatively void of
    extensive shower activity up until now (1530 UTC). The lack of
    extensive shower activity this morning has enabled surface
    temperatures to slowly warm into the 75-80 deg F range and
    correspondingly enable moderate destabilization. Surface dewpoints
    are in the lower 70s and are indicative of a very moist boundary
    layer extending from IA into Lower MI.=20=20

    It seems plausible some increase in severe risk may occur downstream
    of the MCV across eastern IA into southern WI over the next several
    hours. Some of this activity may move east across Lake Michigan
    into Lower MI. Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are the
    severe concern, but uncertainty remains high regarding details of
    the convective evolution of various thunderstorm clusters that will
    probably develop further over the next few hours.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!43C93O3SSvYn09O5E19dfe4lI5bGaY2bxdPTIwwQF4-fpeYI5PnEwVPTEJI3KrkFqjFdTAWeA= UcXvHTaG-Rc_vcq6lk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRR...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43878488 43389005 43159074 42539166 42299159 42119119
    42458992 42898484 43348456 43878488=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 14:26:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 201426
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201425=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1640
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0925 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern CO...southwestern NE...and
    far northwestern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201425Z - 201600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts could continue with an organized
    cluster of thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...KGLD/KFTG radar data shows an organized line segment
    tracking east-northeastward at around 30-35 kt over northeastern CO
    this morning. A 55-kt gust was recently measured in Akron CO with
    this activity. While surface observations and the LBF observed
    sounding suggest lingering nocturnal boundary-layer static
    stability, forced ascent associated with an upstream mesoscale low
    and a corridor of upper 60s dewpoints are likely aiding in
    near-surface based inflow given steep midlevel lapse rates.

    Around 30 kt of midlevel flow (per regional VWP), the favorably rich
    low-level moisture, and ascent preceding the mesoscale low, may
    favor continued organization and the potential for locally severe
    gusts during the next hour or two. A watch is not currently expected
    given the localized nature of the threat.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QV5DWpmGr_nX8kGWBQaFrVkJK6PX_UQo4rPwgiqv9fUpj9surzVOkWuK_FQ8l4JIBANios-Z= vN1Y5kcJ-DDDSLRr9I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39600201 39600259 39700286 39920302 40160307 40350306
    40540282 40640255 40710213 40710153 40630107 40490084
    40230073 39860078 39720095 39600201=20


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