ACUS11 KWNS 031453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031453=20
MIZ000-031630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031453Z - 031630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph)
will probably continue eastward to Lake Huron through 1230 pm EDT.=20
The spatiotemporal extent of the threat will preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster has moved from
central WI to the northwestern portion of Lower MI this morning. A
history of wind damage accompanied this small complex over WI before
moving over Lake Michigan. A recent intensification of the cluster
has been noted with eastward movement accelerating in the past hour
with motion around 50-55 kt. Although the boundary layer has been
slow to destabilize due to limit insolation, it seems the
near-surface layer is not prohibitive to strong to severe gust
potential (50-65 mph).

..Smith/Grams.. 08/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WVCeOw738C93EH72m5r46vpCXDorxux4053ki-yhjIgsm6T7bC5zV8QJCTT7rKZjrTx0gzI2= apT2m9wASanUOUGaFw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44438540 44498357 44298333 44158353 44048536 44438540=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 201358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201358=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-201530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...East-central MO into central/southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201358Z - 201530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible into mid
morning, with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. Watch
issuance is possible if storm coverage and intensity continue to
increase.

DISCUSSION...Storm intensity has recently increased along the
periphery of a large storm cluster, with isolated supercells
recently noted north of St. Louis and northwest of Paducah, and a
small outflow surge southwest of St. Louis. Ongoing storms are
likely somewhat elevated, but with rich low-level moisture in place,
diurnal heating may aid in a transition to surface-based convection,
with an attendant potential increase in storm intensity.=20

Midlevel lapse rates are not overly steep, with modestly warm
temperatures aloft, but any sustained supercell could pose some hail
threat. Locally damaging winds will also be a risk, though the
potential for organized upscale growth may be limited in the short
term. The need for watch issuance through mid morning is uncertain,
due to uncertainty regarding the short-term coverage of the severe
threat, but remains possible if storm coverage and intensity
continues to increase.

..Dean/Gleason.. 07/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6MVw3O3nSzDTRAqRfW-KPCxCR703cTsTe1XrOespr3Gha-wOzu-V3JA0QqzLw62CfdJ6cYQpq= 4Quc3gEQCc2AEzfX8A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38289163 38569107 38829049 39129038 39339036 39849015
39718935 39238895 38708912 38208975 38099089 38289163=20


=3D =3D =3D
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