ACUS11 KWNS 030302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030301=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-030430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

Valid 030301Z - 030430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
512 in northern Wisconsin. The primary concern continues to be
damaging winds, though isolated large hail and/or a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from DLH shows an organized MCS
tracking southeastward at around 30 kt across parts of northern
Wisconsin. Within the pre-convective environment, a strongly
unstable airmass driven by lower 70s dewpoints beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates (per the 00Z DVN/GRB soundings) is supporting deep/persistent updrafts along the consolidated east/west-oriented
outflow boundary. The strongest instability is located ahead of the
western portion of this MCS -- where transient supercell structures
have been developing.=20

Regional VWP data depicts around 50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear oriented
oblique to the leading-edge gust front, which should continue to
yield a predominantly linear mode and the potential for damaging
gusts where downdrafts can penetrate the boundary layer. However,
the presence of large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs will
still support embedded supercell structures, and isolated large hail
and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While recent reports
have generally been sparse and only consisted of marginally severe
hail, it is possible that the damaging-wind threat could still
increase with southward extent -- especially with any
north/south-oriented segments that can develop.

..Weinman.. 08/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--4FWKoev0pEuYWFRIJLB6nNR7qqv1k_JtHOAChVb2rIZ7hh6b06NybpZkZO98LYDeZ8y8ZzL= b-H9K4o30kB995jjQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45879143 46139008 46158971 45978925 45588897 44938912
44588974 44619148 44879262 45529282 45929225 45879143=20


=3D =3D =3D
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