• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1633

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 02, 2022 22:35:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 022235
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022234=20
    NMZ000-AZZ000-030030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeast AZ into far southwest NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022234Z - 030030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
    with the stronger storms this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convective development is
    underway along the higher terrain in southeast AZ this afternoon.
    Here, enhanced midlevel easterly flow along the southern periphery
    of a large-scale ridge is contributing to 25-35 kt effective shear.
    This modest deep-layer shear, coupled with steep midlevel lapse
    rates atop a moist boundary layer (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) could
    favor a few deep/organized updrafts capable of isolated large hail
    and locally severe downdraft winds. Current thinking is that this
    threat will remain too isolated for a watch consideration.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZbSYtarGj3ZVlllIggzOYiu7OLL73v6LlR-IA9RaAUElQMwgoyNg8pArHJ3j9ked7CvRjv6H= JZB2mX42JslFutOHhQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31240817 31210932 31250984 31731039 32481071 33241070
    33671050 33661005 33420973 33200947 32940917 32580872
    32290829 31750760 31620792 31240817=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 19, 2023 20:49:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 192048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192048=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-192215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192048Z - 192215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of primarily damaging wind gusts are
    possible this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints from
    the mid 60s to near 70 have resulted in moderate destabilization
    (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. There has
    been some increase in storm coverage/cumulus depth across the region
    over the past hour, likely in response to a weak shortwave crossing
    the Appalachians now. Some enhanced mid-level flow accompanies this
    shortwave (sampled around 30 to 35 knots at 4-5 km per CCX VWP) and
    may provide enough shear for some storm organization. Warm mid-level temperatures and corresponding weak mid-level lapse rates, combined
    with the meager shear, should limit the hail threat. However,
    isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with the strongest storm
    cores.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kR8ixFntaZGa8n04c1xAmHfqz0w4XcOxR_HZfi_rTZOQ9Ktc261ARvgRtFqu0JNYP_OILz5g= 8ImjtMOhf7n4ZUDr_I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40867800 41217646 40827481 40077446 39327520 38367534
    37967608 37727733 37757821 38077866 40867800=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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