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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1632

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 02, 2022 21:39:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 022139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022139=20
    FLZ000-022315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1632
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022139Z - 022315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic marginal hail and locally damaging gusts will be
    possible as convection continues spreading across the western
    Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A watch is not needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from TBW/MFL shows diurnally-driven
    convection spreading slowly westward across parts of the western
    Florida Peninsula this afternoon. An upper-level low evident in
    water vapor imagery north of the Bahamas is contributing to
    seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates and enhanced anvil-level
    northerly flow. These factors, coupled with deep tropospheric
    moisture (PWs near 2.0 in) and steepened boundary-layer lapse rates
    could support marginal hail and locally damaging wet downbursts with
    the stronger pulsating updrafts for next couple hours. However,
    minimal cloud-layer shear will limit overall convective organization
    outside of local congealing of cold pools -- precluding the need for
    a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FBvyy-yvYpcEo4AAl2mQ2ZsQVvDjb1Q82w_shxO4DTuh0H-jHPc-XHiObEX01cz1M_zMDNLF= E7qm02PfmCL2FWIcaU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 25778136 25918174 26298198 26508225 27568281 27948290
    28418277 29118280 29358230 29258180 28698167 28198154
    27878147 27378147 27008145 26608139 26208110 25948106
    25778136=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 19, 2023 20:21:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 192021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192021=20
    UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-192245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1632
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nevada and western UT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192021Z - 192245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through the
    afternoon. Strong to severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
    A watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...A vorticity maximum embedded in a belt of moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow (evident in water vapor imagery)
    will continue east-northeastward across eastern Nevada and western
    UT this afternoon into early evening. As DCVA preceding this feature overspreads a diurnally destabilizing air mass, thunderstorm
    coverage will gradually increase during the next few hours as
    boundary-layer inhibition continues to erode. While modest
    deep-layer shear (20-30 kt of effective shear) may limit convective organization to an extent, at least loosely organized updrafts
    embedded in larger clusters of eastward-moving storms will be
    possible. This, combined with the diurnally deepening boundary layer
    and steepening low-level lapse rates (characterized by inverted-V
    thermodynamic profiles) will support strong to severe outflow winds
    -- especially with any loosely organized clusters.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6B36V67ETZfJiwgQt7CDzoiSSjflFP-60mvEUj6u0_9Q8DDTqvIzlPe41MUzkoDljtD5-IoUz= wwydT3CnjiEwT_cWuQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN...

    LAT...LON 41841428 41991358 41991292 41891222 41501168 41011154
    40591148 39261186 38641232 38241280 38191335 38191395
    38251503 38481545 38661570 39001577 39571572 40011559
    40991505 41481472 41841428=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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