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ACUS11 KWNS 220538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220538=20
TXZ000-220645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central into coastal/east TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

Valid 220538Z - 220645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat continues,
with a brief tornado also possible. A new watch will likely be
needed by 06Z (1 AM CDT).

DISCUSSION...Convection has grown upscale into an extensive,
slow-moving squall line across parts of central TX early this
morning as an upper trough/low ejects over the southern Plains.
Multiple instances of marginally severe hail have recently been
noted with the stronger cores near San Antonio TX. Given the
generally linear nature of the storms, isolated damaging winds
should also be a concern. The airmass downstream of this activity
remains very moist and unstable, with latest mesoanalysis estimating
MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg present across coastal/east TX. Strong
deep-layer shear of 45-55+ kt will also support continued storm
organization. The better low-level flow associated with a southerly
low-level jet remains displaced a little to the east of the ongoing
convection, but adequate low-level shear (reference recent VWPs from
KHGX) should also be enough for occasional low-level rotation and a
brief tornado or two embedded within the line. Additional storms
aided by low-level warm advection have developed ahead of the line,
and this activity may also pose an isolated severe threat if it
strengthens. A new watch will likely be needed by 06Z (1 AM CDT) to
address the expectations that a severe threat will continue for
several more hours this morning.

..Gleason/Grams.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!soNemOSxf4gm-ntgFRLEqLqV5bGJEjlv9ewy3emicf2fuTQOOTqP6pKO8CMy1vkPu04W_E7k$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28539814 29279842 30119772 30919689 31259618 31389571
31429535 31299500 31059475 30679470 30269482 29759509
29339541 28949593 28659674 28469758 28539814=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 171827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171827=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171827Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to gradually
intensify and organize through 5-7 PM CDT, eventually accompanied by
wind gusts perhaps occasionally approaching severe limits. It is
not yet clear that this will require a severe weather watch, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying within a narrow
corridor along and just ahead of the sharp southeastward advancing
cold front, and generally south of an intersecting pre-frontal
outflow boundary extending east-northeastward across southern
Alabama. This is occurring in advance of a remnant mesoscale
convective vortex, and perhaps associated weak subtropical
perturbation, emerging from the Mexican Plateau to the south of the
Texas Big Bend last night.

Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are generally poor, and
supportive of limited initial instability, insolation and low-level
moistening on southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to
contribute to at least weak boundary-layer destabilization in
advance of the developing thunderstorms. As inflow of this air
contributes to further deepening of convection, in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear, and west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
around 40 kt, activity may continue to slowly organize and
accelerate eastward through late afternoon. Both the Rapid Refresh
and high-resolution Rapid Refresh have been suggestive that
corridors of strong rear inflow in excess of 50 kt may develop with
the evolving convective system, at least in the
lower/mid-troposphere. If this occurs, it is possible that it could
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts, at
least occasionally approaching severe limits.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-PK65SlpUQMTeLhWlbD1LTS55S5bC0FPkwYJ1g5xrd5hLaPwR5pCUnX0r_W2LQ-Ei6ZzKG0WI= njwqe-34OlBf5dG-Ag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30478815 31078784 32088548 31228567 30478592 29648674
29328878 29448929 30478815=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 260236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260235=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-260430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Central Mississippi...Far Eastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 260235Z - 260430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes and wind damage will likely
continue over the next couple of hours across Tornado Watch 62.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Jackson,
MS shows an organized line of strong thunderstorms located across
southwest and central Mississippi. This line of storms is located in
weak instability along an axis of maximized low-level moisture with
surface dewpoints from 65 to 70 F. On the large-scale, an 80 to 100
knot mid-level jet is passing through the Ark-La-Tex. Large-scale
ascent associated with this feature is helping to support and
intensify the line. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from
Jackson, MS has an impressive shear profile, with an increase to 65
knots in the lowest 1 km, and a large looping hodograph. This will
likely support a tornado threat with embedded rotating cells within
the line. The greatest threat will likely be in central Mississippi,
where the combination of shear and lift appears to be maximized.
Wind damage will also be possible ahead of the more intense line
segments.

..Broyles.. 03/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zb70oQxUbPksIPT0UiIlpPBgTtjqJ-dUAaxIkTq3mpMISVTwwKErHHDWlUpYcaSVE2gxu62S= zbEWG13FM98XL19xzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30749019 30848963 31308920 32178868 32878845 33328841
33578862 33638900 33638939 33528969 33178998 32669032
32049084 31499123 31189135 30849115 30759089 30749019=20


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