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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1628

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 02, 2022 00:53:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 020053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020052=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1628
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0752 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

    Areas affected...Lower to Middle OH River Valley

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...509...

    Valid 020052Z - 020245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 509
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across WW 508
    and 509, with the greatest near-term risk across southeast IL into
    far northwest KY and far southwest IN. The severe potential is
    becoming more conditional across southern IN, northern KY, and
    southwest OH.

    DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms across the IL/IN/KY
    tri-state region has become outflow dominant with a prominent cold
    pool apparent on regional radar imagery. Lift atop the western edge
    of the cold pool is promoting continued regeneration of deep
    convection with many towers showing periods of strong cloud top
    cooling and lightning jumps. This region will likely continue to see
    additional development along the periphery of the cold pool for the
    next hour or so, which will maintain the potential for severe hail,
    and perhaps isolated severe winds.=20=20

    To the east into southern IN, northern KY, and southwest OH, early
    convection has diminished in intensity and coverage, likely owing to
    a combination of weakening forcing for ascent (convergence along the
    surface boundary has weakened over the past hour) and destructive
    storm interference. Consequently, the near-term severe potential has
    decreased. However, a mid-level shortwave trough across northern IN
    continues to approach the region. Evidence of lift associated with
    this feature is noted across northwest OH, and may be sufficient to
    support additional thunderstorm development during the 01-03 UTC
    time frame. Confidence in this potential is modest, but
    thunderstorms that do develop may pose a severe wind/hail risk given
    the favorable parameter space.

    ..Moore.. 08/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4xL6Y-J_mnrwY1ZpZWP1m1TEZCsKAhwNEOPFlG8qnOEzCZXLosugtReeF7h8afLZmMjnGgBqJ= zlouPJp8idYzeTJ_ck$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38908876 39328840 39678660 39858477 39758310 39388256
    38708253 38338306 38298387 38398488 38108593 37698660
    37448717 37288790 37418850 37838879 38288886 38908876=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 19, 2023 19:01:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 191900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191900=20
    NCZ000-192000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1628
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0200 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

    Valid 191900Z - 192000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

    SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
    Tornado watch 517 has been expanded southward to cover this threat.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across
    east-central North Carolina along a remnant outflow boundary. The
    boundary layer has warmed into the 90s ahead of this activity with
    dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This yields 2000 to 2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE. However, shear is somewhat lacking in the region as the RAX
    VWP shows effective shear has dropped to around 15 knots in the wake
    of the compact MCV. Therefore, storm organization remains somewhat questionable. However, despite questions about storm organization,
    some severe weather threat will persist given the favorable
    thermodynamic environment. In addition, some lingering stronger flow
    may continue across east-central North Carolina with perhaps a
    lingering tornado threat, particularly where more backed surface
    flow remains amid a moist boundary layer.=20

    Given this new development south of the initial outline of Tornado
    Watch 517, a southward expansion has been coordinated with WFO MHX.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Yxs-eJ7GFg60L2xTgKZpAHkCSJ_rQx1LGIbOgdbWsUXVsr9RaAE0qHmjwhypUhTZ9KLlCNg5= VFybkj5kcX5o0Iwf5s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35237850 36027724 36047598 35807547 35577538 35267545
    35177554 34647628 34587693 34427742 35237850=20


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