ACUS11 KWNS 012252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012251=20
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Areas affected...Middle Ohio River Valley
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...509...
Valid 012251Z - 020045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 509
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind/hail, and perhaps a
brief/weak tornado continues for the middle OH River Valley. A more
isolated risk of severe wind/hail may persist across parts of the
upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachians.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to intensify along a stationary
boundary along the middle OH River Valley. A more robust supercell
cluster across southeast IL has produced several instances of severe
hail over the past hour, including a 2-inch hail report. This
cell/cluster has begun to take on more outflow-dominant
characteristics (base on KVWS imagery), and may see an increasing
severe wind potential over the next 1-2 hours across the IL/KY/IN
tri-state region.=20
To the east into southern IN/OH, shallower supercells continue to
intensify with increasing lightning counts and cooling cloud-top
temperatures. Modest ambient low-level helicity along the boundary
has allowed for these cells to quickly take on some supercell
characteristics with mid-level rotation. Latest environmental
estimates continue to show this region has the highest tornado
potential with ESRH estimates near 150-200 m2/s2. However, deep
layer flow and storm motions along the boundary will likely favor a
gradual increase in storm interactions that will act to limit the
tornado potential (though a hail/wind threat will likely persist).=20
Across WV into PA, an elongated cluster of thunderstorms has
maintained intensity despite moving into a more limited
thermodynamic environment. This is likely due to favorable
deep-layer shear (near 40 knots) that is compensating for the meager instability. A gradual weakening trend is likely with this activity
heading into the late evening hours, but a localized severe
wind/hail risk main persist for the next hour or so.
..Moore.. 08/01/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-reJ56AFbdQWvU8bwOJCPJOIyqwGyITQOTUuoxQ7OapOObB4IkJ4qcEwvYaIuZ0kuzt4H1__z= NAup9Cc0oT2fCzE78c$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39478900 39628818 39938340 39828279 39478243 38828222
38318230 38168302 38068498 37808654 37668734 37788819
38318875 38648903 39478900=20
=3D =3D =3D
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