• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1626

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 01, 2022 20:48:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 012046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012046=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-012315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022

    Areas affected...much of central and eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012046Z - 012315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms including a few
    supercells should slowly develop late this afternoon and continue
    into this evening. Hail and damaging winds will be possible.
    Conditions will be monitored for a possible weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a weak mid-level disturbance moving across the
    central High Plains, afternoon visible imagery shows alto cumulus
    increasing in coverage across portions of central and eastern NE.
    Continued heating of the already warm and moist boundary layer
    should result in gradual erosion of remaining inhibition late this
    afternoon into early this evening. Enhanced mid-level flow
    associated with the approaching shortwave is evident on area VAD
    VWPs and SPC mesoanalysis, supporting 35 to 45 kt of effective
    shear. The combination of subtle forcing for ascent and favorable
    shear should support an initial supercellular storm mode with storms
    as they gradually develop. The supercell mode and mid-level lapse
    rates in excess of 8 C/km should support large hail potential with
    the more dominant storms. Damaging winds will also be possible given
    relatively large T/TD spreads (greater than 20 F) favoring higher
    LCLs. Some upscale growth into a cluster/small MCS is possible later
    this evening as outflow from initially supercellular storms
    coagulates. This is supported by recent HRRR solutions which some an
    increase in storm coverage later this evening as convection
    approaches the Missouri River and eastern NE. Should this occur, a
    greater risk of damaging winds may develop with any well formed
    bowing segments that become established.=20

    Current observational and model trends suggests initial updrafts
    will evolve out of the better mixed airmass across western/central
    NE in the next couple of hours. There after, storms should become
    established as they move farther east into the more moist/unstable
    airmass (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). While some uncertainty on storm
    development timing and coverage exists given the lack of greater
    background forcing, the potential for severe hail and wind suggests
    an increasing severe threat this afternoon/evening. Trends will be
    monitored for a possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-x2IfEO6GqWbiXvZWSJjKzWTzTdp4wWxwxgan4R-DEeuX7qNREImDm0xfRgigquXQHjFbQosk= aYD7x2coTZ3oOpKElo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 41099991 41310062 41850080 42360085 42820061 43019991
    42999940 42999823 42919737 42649667 42439652 42099639
    41649615 41349613 41139617 40989629 40939651 40969712
    41099991=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 19, 2023 11:12:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 191111
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191111=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0611 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri...southern
    Illinois...western Kentucky and Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...

    Valid 191111Z - 191315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe surface gusts may still
    increase near/north of the Cape Girardeau into Paducah vicinities
    through 7-8 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development continues, and
    remains generally focused within a persistent/slow moving zone of
    stronger low-level warm advection. Activity appears rooted above a
    remnant shallow stable surface-based layer associated within prior
    convective outflow, where moderately strong south to southwesterly
    elevated updraft inflow is characterized by seasonably high moisture
    content with CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg.

    Convection has tended to weaken while spreading south of the
    Kentucky/Tennessee border, to the west of the Greater Nashville
    area, perhaps as it advects southeast of the better forcing for
    ascent. However, colder cloud tops and higher lightning flash rates
    have generally been maintained upstream, to a possible evolving
    cluster north/northeast of Farmington MO. Based on its current
    motion (southeasterly around 30-35 kt), this trailing cluster will
    overspread the Cape Girardeau MO into Paducah KY vicinity through
    12-13Z. As it does, the Rapid Refresh has been indicating potential strengthening of rear inflow (to 50+ kt), at least in mid-levels,
    which could eventually be accompanied by strengthening southeastward
    surging outflow and increasing risk for strong to severe surface
    gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7n93xd7euDLHP7U1N_Fdslg5NzWPI2jXcOsev4r5nERloDB8szqoR5QRPU4Sue_9vWXIKKOMx= RiGpvt0QvBfm1ccp40$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37849007 37788893 37138834 36618813 36488850 36458887
    36998961 37479012 37849007=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)