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ACUS11 KWNS 220403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220402=20
ARZ000-220600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57...

Valid 220402Z - 220600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across
all but far western portions of ww57.

DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm advection continues beneath
60-70kt LLJ that extends from the Arklatex into southwestern MO.
Surface dew points are slowly rising across southern AR as the warm
front advances erratically northward ahead of the primary band of
convection. Over the last few hours, scattered elevated storms north
of the warm front have gradually increased in areal coverage, with
updraft intensity more robust at lower latitudes nearer to higher
buoyancy. Even so, well-organized squall line extends into the cool
air as far north as I-40 where it is surging east in excess of 40kt.
This linear MCS should continue propagating across central into
eastern portions of ww57 with some attendant threat for isolated
damaging winds. Otherwise, marginally severe hail is the primary
risk with more discrete elevated structures ahead of the line.

..Darrow.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rOM8S-yTkTwtChDjN00YJ79SKLJbKSFvHIhew1dl-jpvQdnpwyfAkqE7-y08YyI6dSZH0mmk$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34409440 35419438 34159193 33169193 34409440=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 170653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170652=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...East Texas...Central Louisiana...Southwestern
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...

Valid 170652Z - 170745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for a couple more
hours across the lower Mississippi Valley, but should become more
isolated with time. New weather watch issuance, to the east of WW
70, appears unlikely due to the weakly unstable airmass further
east.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms is currently ongoing ahead
of a cold front from southeast Texas northeastward into
north-central and northeastern Louisiana. The line is located along
a narrow corridor of instability extending from near the
Houston/Galveston area northeastward into north-central Louisiana,
where the RAP is showing MLCAPE generally ranging from 500 to 1500
J/kg. The line of storms is not only being supported by the
low-level convergence ahead of the front, but also by a shortwave
trough in the Sabine River Valley, evident on water-vapor imagery.
The latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Polk, Louisiana has 0-6 km shear near
50 knots with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2
km. This wind profile will support a severe threat with wind damage
and hail possible over the next couple of hours. As the line of
storms moves eastward, it will encounter weaker and weaker
instability. This, combined with a strong capping inversion to the
east, should result in a downtrend of the severe threat over the
next few hours.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_zVj_1lGZoesnuQcKAo-yJ6oYCTm3l3UAGrKtz__YRS16UMvqJhB29vmABUixyBV0Ny7lj4ap= D9Nx-nm4xZcPZUFwDE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30009372 30139272 30469191 30849145 31279137 31629143
31869184 31559297 31129376 30859432 30429434 30099397
30009372=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 252325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252324=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southwest and West-central
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 252324Z - 260130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across the lower Mississippi Valley is
expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. Wind damage,
tornadoes and isolated large hail will be possible. New weather
watch issuance will likely be needed to the east of the current
watch.

DISCUSSION...High-resolution radar imagery from Jackson, MS and Fort
Polk, LA currently show a line of strong thunderstorms located
across central and northeastern Louisiana. A weakly unstable, but
moist airmass is present ahead of the line across much of the lower
Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
F. On a broader scale, water vapor imagery shows a 80 to 100 knot
mid-level jet moving through south-central Texas. As this feature
ejects northeastward this evening, the mass response should be
maintained or may increase across the lower Mississippi Valley.
This, combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely create an
environment supportive of severe storms. Recent trends suggest that
the line has become somewhat more organized over the last hour. The
threat for wind damage, tornadoes and isolated large hail will be
possible, especially with cells that are more likely surface-based
to the east of the ongoing line.

..Broyles.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5tP9_m1s51Q0RXWootpChU7nm6ZVunia_9dMhXI3r160ssdHQwAt119bZ3wPOt6L6Ep8dCYqI= DazoTkjyJjCmBFAe88$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31759222 31179274 30679278 30299222 30289120 30639041
31248983 31998925 32688918 33068950 33198993 33209053
32989109 32249183 31759222=20


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