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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1622

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 01, 2022 01:47:01
    ACUS11 KWNS 010146
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010146=20
    IAZ000-010345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0846 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of northern and central IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 010146Z - 010345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
    if convection can develop/persist over parts of northern and central
    IA tonight. A watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
    along a surface wind shift accompanying a southwestward-arching cold
    front across northern IA, where isolated convective development is
    underway. Subtle large-scale ascent along the nose of an approaching
    midlevel jet streak and a plume of low-level warm advection ahead of
    the surface front could support some increase in convective
    development over the next couple hours -- aided by lower 70s
    dewpoints beneath a plume of modest midlevel lapse rates.

    If convection can develop and persist over northern into central IA
    prior to a substantial increase in nocturnal boundary-layer
    stability, 30-40 kt effective shear oriented perpendicular to the
    surface wind shift and a low-level veering wind profile could
    conditionally support a few semi-discrete, loosely organized
    clusters capable of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts.
    Current thinking is that any surface-based severe risk would be too isolated/brief for a watch consideration, though convective trends
    will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/01/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!983pd8lqYqLFQBZYNUjah3rLajZd_WgKPOqX3WxgzrKpyS7dS2H8APzfBejD83ylBeWdOW2Yr= 1Dc_qfkJ14V5Nosopc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41549410 41849468 42359468 42789424 43389365 43479328
    43499257 43379204 43089183 42339209 41609311 41549410=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 22:47:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 182246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182246=20
    NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0546 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...northern Alabama...eastern Tennessee...northwest
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

    Valid 182246Z - 190145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts will remain possible from northern
    Alabama into eastern Tennessee, and perhaps far northwest Georgia.
    While the severe threat may extend east of WW 512, eastward extent
    appears limited.

    DISCUSSION...An MCS with expansive outflow continues to move
    east/southeast across Middle TN and now into northern AL where the
    strongest cells exist. Recently, wind gusts of 45-52 kt have been
    measured over northern AL and far southern TN. Surface observations
    indicate much drier air near the Atlanta area and points east, with
    objective analysis indicating an MLCAPE drop of over 1000 J/kg
    between Huntsville and Atlanta.=20

    Western portions of the line will continue to interact with the
    stronger instability, but the line orientation appears less
    favorable for anything but a localized severe threat. Later this
    evening, a conditional risk of additional severe gusts will exist
    should the MCS near Memphis remain intact.

    ..Jewell.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QL3X9X2jPXlbasnirXPHu0psKBvWuV_KRUQAXlL3R_j_ulijUaKbWuBCHSogvjHKBsVO5n4n= -wQJk1Tx6s4l6d1f94$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 33918494 33778558 33768726 33858811 34488815 34748794
    34568729 34608672 34928620 35438583 35828562 36128520
    36298452 36078406 35178367 34528392 34188428 33918494=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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