• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0302

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 22, 2022 03:52:26
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220352
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220351=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0302
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

    Valid 220351Z - 220545Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 056.
    Tornadoes appear to be the main threat for at least the next few
    hours, though damaging gusts may also accompany bowing segments.

    DISCUSSION...Two semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across the
    Smith/Upshur County Texas area, with another more discrete supercell
    in progress across Houston County, with either tornadoes reported or
    TDSs detected via KSHV dual-polarimetric radar in both locations.
    These storms are progressing in a highly sheared environment, with
    the SHV depicting an impressive, large/curved hodograph, with over
    500 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1km layer alone. As such, the tornado threat
    is expected to continue across Tornado Watch 056 for at least a few
    more hours, as also suggested by the 03Z Warn-on-Forecast ensemble
    guidance, with several members showing storms remaining discrete and
    robust into the 05-06Z period.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p9VCXp7Yz0Pm0k0SzHxCRm6oSHRC02nsNXV8rq9JvSGo3RTUJ1o8yz6gvUeHWWQHhqWSNJNj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31359561 32659516 33299485 33939441 34099385 34119329
    33929318 33209342 32519368 31729395 31389415 31219445
    31199503 31359561=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 17, 2023 06:23:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 170623
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170623=20
    TXZ000-170900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0302
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 170623Z - 170900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is expected
    to continue across parts of south-central Texas over the next few
    hours. Although weather watch issuance is unlikely, the need for a
    watch still remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a severe short line
    segment about 80 statute miles to the south-southeast of Del Rio.
    This line appears to be associated with a subtle shortwave trough
    moving eastward across the Del Rio, evident on water vapor imagery.
    The line is located along the western edge of moderate instability
    and will move into increasing instability over the next few hours.
    The latest WSR-88D VWP from Del Rio has effective shear near 55
    knots and some speed shear in the mid-levels. While effective shear
    will be adequate for a severe threat, a weak inversion does exist
    near the surface according to RAP forecast soundings. For this
    reason and frontal-undercutting, the storms could remain elevated.
    The severe threat is expected to continue to be isolated. Large hail
    and wind damage will be the primary threats, as the storms move
    eastward across south-central Texas over the next few hours.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WF15lF-elolCcE15Jqa1o6WcmM9-KFf6ohrcxoG5hvfzPlURr2nX9ZZlZXXJPH4ixRPMJ6MN= 5e4LDmnLOhiApyoxNg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28530011 28780014 28950006 29049973 28919830 28819791
    28519761 27999774 27769813 27799871 27909942 28139989
    28530011=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 17, 2023 06:27:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 170627
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170626 COR
    TXZ000-170900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0302
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 170626Z - 170900Z

    CORRECTED FOR WORDING

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is expected
    to continue across parts of south-central Texas over the next few
    hours. Although weather watch issuance is unlikely, the need for a
    watch still remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a severe short line
    segment about 80 statute miles to the south-southeast of Del Rio.
    This line appears to be associated with a subtle shortwave trough
    moving eastward across the Rio Grande Valley, evident on water vapor
    imagery. The line is located along the western edge of moderate
    instability and will move into increasing instability over the next
    few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Del Rio has effective shear
    near 55 knots and some speed shear in the mid-levels. While
    effective shear will be adequate for a severe threat, a weak
    inversion does exist near the surface according to RAP forecast
    soundings. For this reason and frontal-undercutting, the storms
    could remain elevated. The severe threat is expected to continue to
    be isolated. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats,
    as the storms move eastward across south-central Texas over the next
    few hours.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-n5zCkt7jyHG8YQaMnHiZF5KcfGEpYFN0EdjzF90vzExCdc-sWLsGAoEMuNLIW8gJvvluS0iX= UKepXY0weJXxj12s9k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28530011 28780014 28950006 29049973 28919830 28819791
    28519761 27999774 27769813 27799871 27909942 28139989
    28530011=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2024 20:17:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 252017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252017=20
    LAZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0302
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

    Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

    Valid 252017Z - 252215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

    SUMMARY...More rapid intensification of stronger cells embedded
    within the developing line of storms still appears possible through
    4-6 PM CDT, including the evolution of one or two supercells
    accompanied by increasing risk for tornadoes

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slow to substantively intensify
    to this point. However, a gradual modification of the
    boundary-layer is ongoing, particularly in a narrow corridor in
    advance of the evolving line, southeast of Fort Polk through the
    Alexandria and Monroe vicinities, where surface dew points are
    likely to continue to increase through the mid/upper 60s F.=20=20

    Beneath 50-60 kt southerly flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, low-level
    hodographs have become large and clockwise curved. Perhaps with at
    least some further low-level warming, inflow of more unstable air
    may become sufficient to support more rapid intensification of
    stronger cells embedded within the line. If this occurs, the
    environment is conducive to the evolution of supercells posing a
    risk for tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two.

    ..Kerr.. 03/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9EUy78_8Fvhjd-EdGsuDYNuDFAq606ZZNALoaX-A_QBvl9pJw1rK9kpubZfwT2fPmZ6xfTMmE= _tTEMyjAu8x8vGa_Pg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30939304 32209230 32799193 32589143 31649180 30709256
    30539321 30939304=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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