• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0301

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 22, 2022 03:11:25
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220310=20
    TXZ000-220445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1010 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

    Areas affected...portions of far southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 220310Z - 220445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may develop with a discrete
    storm in Webb County Texas. However, coverage and longevity of
    thunderstorms in this area are in question, and a WW issuance does
    not seem likely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A discrete thunderstorm/potential supercell structure
    has rapidly developed in Webb County, Texas over the last hour, with
    MRMS MESH data suggesting up to 2 inch hail may by occurring with
    this storm. This very isolated supercell has developed immediately
    ahead of the dryline, likely due to intense mixing given the
    presence of an intense cap around 850 mb per 00Z BRO and CRP
    observed soundings. Nonetheless, adequate buoyancy resided
    immediately above the capping inversion, with the aforementioned
    observed soundings showing 9 C/km 850-600 mb lapse rates.
    Nonetheless, the presence of such strong capping casts doubt on a
    more widespread severe event. The last few runs of the HRRR and
    multiple members of the 0200 and 0230Z Warn-on-Forecast ensemble
    output depict initially robust updrafts, followed by weaker
    upscale-growing convection across deep south Texas in the 03-06Z
    period. As such, current thinking is that sparse, but severe hail
    will accompany the ongoing storm in the short term and a WW issuance
    is not expected.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tpIDrCRlHA5WVIJiit4ZOip8yQ2_-pusJiUoSlVCnxz7lwad8Ip6E7y9iJC5hAOWgAfCDvsR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 27349946 27869936 28319894 28599847 28689777 28599725
    28379711 28079723 27839753 27459873 27349946=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 17, 2023 04:43:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 170443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170442=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-170615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

    Areas affected...East TX into central/northern LA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...70...

    Valid 170442Z - 170615Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69, 70 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado
    will continue overnight. Some threat may spread east of WW 70, but
    the need for additional watch issuance is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing at 0430Z along a cold
    front from east TX into northwest LA. A notable inflection along the
    line is noted moving into De Soto Parish, LA, where a supercell was
    earlier absorbed into the frontal QLCS. Strong low-level flow/shear
    noted on the KPOE VWP will continue to support locally damaging
    gusts and possibly a brief tornado along this part of the line, and
    any other embedded bowing segments that can be sustained without
    being undercut by the front.=20

    Farther east, persistent elevated convection has organized into a
    small cluster across north-central LA. With very limited MLCAPE this
    far east, the severe potential with this cluster may be somewhat
    limited, but isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as
    it moves eastward.=20

    With time, the leading cluster and eventually the frontal QLCS will
    approach the eastern edge of WW 70. With buoyancy expected to remain
    very limited into northeast LA, the need for downstream watch
    issuance is uncertain at this time, and will depend on short-term
    observational trends regarding the organization and intensity of the
    ongoing storms, and any further destabilization that can occur in
    the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_zJtvsi-SLP8D8PE2nE3Od_SL1J3geYre13Se1ioNrmDfWbSpY-j8s-clg8VlwphnLl4GSGNb= fNBQDH5CG1v9Ce13SU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 31119549 32209390 32719307 32889198 32899163 32689122
    31669157 31109260 30799383 30819537 31119549=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2024 19:39:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 251939
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251938=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-252145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

    Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251938Z - 252145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated
    tornado possible through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near
    the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern
    Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and
    moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through
    the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
    dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal
    (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8
    C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon.
    Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest
    low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated
    tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail
    will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yKyRkzqFvQpMvE6iWITdby4QLM1UOaGRGyTR3iGIYgGtwjYhFCWSnSoBpH-80ZrSQZcy-YnT= CfMQvKCGiGHz_IU5oo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41439629 41699622 42379593 42829519 42649468 42359435
    41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464 40209511 40269555
    40589588 41439629=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2024 19:44:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 251944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251944 COR
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-252145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0301
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

    Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251944Z - 252145Z

    CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated
    tornado possible through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near
    the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern
    Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and
    moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through
    the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and
    dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal
    (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8
    C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon.
    Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest
    low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated
    tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail
    will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Vyqbzu62PKG5ZK6sQNW6z8lY5B3iDBVlxNLngNxW0N8RUcTy_PSE4Ld-9ihWNGJKcI7X2-yW= uBXSt8AEheNsTTMK-Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 40279553 40919595 41439599 41979591 42369563 42829519
    42649468 42359435 41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464
    40209511 40279553=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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