• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0300

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 22, 2022 02:12:55
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    ACUS11 KWNS 220212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220212=20
    TXZ000-220345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0912 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...56...

    Valid 220212Z - 220345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54, 56 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 054 and
    056. The tornado threat will be primarily associated with two
    supercells across central Texas, though a couple tornadoes may also
    develop with QLCS circulations farther north.

    DISCUSSION...Two mature, sustained supercells are in progress across
    Brazos and Freestone Counties in Texas, with other semi-discrete
    supercells and intermittent QLCS circulations pulsing in intensity
    in the Kaufman, Van Zandt and Henderson County vicinity. These
    storms are progressing in a highly sheared environment and 1500+
    J/kg MLCAPE. 00Z RAP forecast soundings valid for 00-02Z show
    rapidly weakening 850-700 mb wind fields via "M-shaped" hodographs,
    indicating the low-level jet axis is rapidly shifting east-northeast
    in tandem with an embedded 500 mb vort max/jet streak located along
    the TX/OK border. While this flow weakness may temper the tornado
    threat to some degree, forecast soundings still depict 200+ 0-1km
    SRH beneath the 850-700 mb flow weakness. As such, at least isolated
    tornadoes are still possible, and a strong tornado cannot be ruled
    out, either with the two mature supercells or any other storm that
    can acquire sustained low-level rotation.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rdOCSjQtokXZHBrDksfq3yDYsZ0UzwovfJ9F65Lgnic1f9pNxYjEQHZEUyyo_HGGMNihDij0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30539635 31389638 32329636 32669624 32699562 32669511
    32369470 31789449 31159475 30659567 30539635=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 17, 2023 03:44:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 170344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170344=20
    TXZ000-170515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central/east TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

    Valid 170344Z - 170515Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts may spread southeastward late tonight. The need for additional watch issuance
    is uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection have been ongoing
    across parts of central TX late this evening, with MRMS hail size
    estimates occasionally approaching severe criteria. While MLCINH
    will continue to increase with time, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and
    effective shear of around 40-50 kt will continue to support
    organized storm potential.=20

    The risk for damaging gusts and hail may briefly increase as a
    strong cold front overtakes the ongoing storm clusters, and any
    clusters than accelerate southeastward and avoid being undercut by
    the front may continue to pose some severe threat into the overnight
    hours. At this time, it is unclear whether the coverage and
    magnitude of the remaining severe threat will necessitate downstream
    watch issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored for any
    uptick in storm intensity and organization.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5T5KTV3oBUhGQfONpPMAUhXdqHU7-qOGPA33fsjBjncnqw8LXVIhFbhlzbN1169QwgUrDtBhA= Aw44YsltUhs2btguas$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29839804 30699649 30739555 29959572 29509643 29399683
    29289764 29299789 29839804=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2024 17:21:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 251721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251720=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-252015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

    Areas affected...parts of western/northern Louisiana and adjacent
    southern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251720Z - 252015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential exists for one or two supercell storms to
    gradually develop this afternoon, particularly near/west of the
    Alexandria through Monroe vicinities by 3-4 PM CDT, if not earlier.=20
    This may be accompanied by increasing risk to produce
    tornadoes--perhaps a strong one.

    DISCUSSION...In advance of a pre-frontal low-level wind
    shift/confluence zone slowly advancing eastward across parts of
    western Arkansas and eastern Texas, new thunderstorm development has
    initiated across upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coastal
    areas. This appears to be in response to low-level moistening and
    lift within a fairly strong warm advection regime, which may be
    maximized near or just above 850 mb.

    This is forecast to continue to shift north-northeastward toward
    north central Louisiana, near/west of Monroe, through 20-21Z, where
    somewhat weaker mid-level inhibition and increasing mid/upper
    forcing beneath more pronounced difluent flow aloft may support
    thunderstorm intensification. Given the strong deep-layer shear,
    and forecast of enlarging low-level hodographs beneath strengthening
    southerly 850 flow (to 50+ kt), the structure of the near-surface
    thermodynamic profiles remains the primary uncertainty concerning
    severe weather potential.

    For example, notable differences are evident between the NAM and
    Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, with the NAM soundings suggesting
    convection may remain elevated above a saturated but weakly stable
    profile from the surface through around 850 mb. Lapse rates within
    this layer in the Rapid Refresh forecast soundings appear at least
    somewhat more unstable, and perhaps supportive of convection rooted
    closer to the surface, where hodographs within the low-level inflow
    layer may be more conducive to the evolution of strong low-level
    mesocyclones.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7nPFuMYFXHO24_94bv2iuXg92mpWxieBHK0XG3v__Nuq6NJRM0ijAAH7IEcJLYQFzeYcPoEIl= bg86rdkXYva9Ynl92M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30549391 32379358 33199256 32489169 31259207 30369248
    29969331 30549391=20


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