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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1616

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 29, 2022 22:34:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 292234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292233=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-300000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1616
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

    Areas affected...southeastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

    Valid 292233Z - 300000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to gradually diminish across
    southeastern Virginia and vicinity this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the most vigorous storms now
    having moved largely offshore, trailing onshore only into far
    northeastern North Carolina (Currituck County) just south of WW 507.
    Meanwhile to the west, a roughly west-to-east cluster of storms
    continues moving across southeastern Virginia, though to the cool
    side of a pronounced outflow surging southward toward the
    Virginia/North Carolina border.=20=20

    The environment across the area remains marginally supportive of
    severe weather, with moderate westerly flow aloft and 1500 to 2500
    J/kg mixed-layer CAPE still indicated by RAP-based objective
    analysis. A such, limited/local risk for mainly gusty/damaging
    winds may persist in the short term. However, the continued/slow
    decrease in risk that is ongoing may permit consideration of WW
    cancellation prior to its scheduled 30/00Z expiration.

    ..Goss.. 07/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90caMfGp0vUji80lgny8OLJfPEjPVBJIRd-M6NI8Qt4geNUR2GUX_82eSNw9uzOtobrLz4G16= UQmSSXao9Fw6laV0Oc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36537952 37047882 37507633 37837493 36907536 36117615
    36357726 36537952=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 17:48:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 181748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181748=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1616
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western KY and Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 181748Z - 181845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for
    parts of the area in the next hour. An organized MCS with severe
    winds is approaching from the west.

    DISCUSSION...An organized bowing MCS is tracking eastward across the
    lower OH River Valley at around 50 kt this afternoon -- with a
    recent measured gust of 66 mph in far southeastern MO. The MCS is
    moving into an increasingly unstable pre-convective environment with
    around 40 kt of west-northwesterly deep-layer shear oriented
    perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front. This should support
    its maintenance downstream into southwestern KY and Middle TN this
    afternoon -- with a corresponding risk of severe winds up to 75 mph.
    A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the
    area in the next hour.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sCv-UCjWFsdnXQUIZJNR_63JZYGNIvSFCgggDnkkGqUEbx8DhVxnqAiwxI4JouXJNEeRc0hP= Xunv9nbmi0SYtYzZUg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37148818 37508813 37708805 37938785 37948755 37888704
    37728635 37438571 37068520 36458527 35668561 35388582
    35178607 35208680 35288751 35488796 35808814 36848820
    37148818=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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