• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1614

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 29, 2022 21:46:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 292146
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292145=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0445 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southwest South Dakota into far
    northwest Nebraska and extreme eastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292145Z - 292345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe wind gusts or bouts of large hail may
    accompany the stronger storms into the evening. A WW issuance is not
    expected given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently demonstrated an uptick in
    intensity over the past hour or so across portions of the northern
    High Plains, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing 30-50 dBZ echo tops approaching 35-50 kft. MRMS data also shows marginally severe hail
    potentially accompanying several of the stronger multicell and
    transient supercell thunderstorms as well. These storms continue to
    persist in a modestly unstable environment (i.e. 1500-2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE based on the 21Z mesoanalysis and 20Z RAP forecast
    soundings). Low-level moisture is limited, but low-level lapse rates
    are steep (i.e. widespread 8+ C/km in the 0-3 km layer). When also
    taking into account 7-8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, any storms that
    can sustain themselves to an appreciable intensity may spawn a
    couple of severe gusts/hailstones. However, deep-layer shear is
    weak, and multicell/supercells are expected to mainly percolate in
    intensity. KUDX radar shows several outflow boundaries emanating
    from the stronger storm cores, further supporting the notion of
    short-lived storms/storm interference. As such, the severe threat is
    expected to remain localized and brief, and a WW issuance is not
    expected.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Urx4oSO8RG0kScaWkA6DvnFjgnk_3GjJUkA-EYwz31iK1wM7Uib66MZ_lkvyAp17XzLnY4q9= 0NsogkKTURdIpfNjlA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42680453 44160423 44370392 44270276 43990187 43520126
    43020096 42560111 42270177 42180267 42190379 42680453=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 16:12:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 181612
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181611=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-181815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1111 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New York...Northern and Western New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181611Z - 181815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms are
    expected this afternoon. It is unclear if coverage of storms will
    warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
    across eastern NY and much of New England, where dewpoints are in
    the mid-upper 60s. This warm/humid air mass will yield afternoon
    MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and rather steep low-level lapse
    rates. A shortwave trough over western PA will provide large scale
    forcing for ascent across the region, leading to widely scattered
    thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show that the strength
    of the winds aloft and thermodynamic parameters look favorable for a
    risk of damaging winds in the stronger storms that can form.=20
    However, most recent CAM solutions suggest that coverage of storms
    will be somewhat limited. Satellite/radar trends will be monitored
    through the early afternoon, with a severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance possible.

    ..Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-T__SeZTveY_LbAtd29p_Hc5QCPyIrE3kr5HZOISoymm6fk2sPoBw2OQenjRAu_wafIlzCcSc= 3gEpg1q35EDpWUDun0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44457596 45107485 45057154 45797051 46996982 47256898
    44836951 42907221 41597370 42327525 42737772 44457596=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)