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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1613

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 29, 2022 20:38:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 292038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292038=20
    UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-292245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1613
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

    Areas affected...southern Nevada...northwestern Arizona and far
    southwest Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292038Z - 292245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based storm clusters may pose a risk for isolated
    strong to severe gusts into this evening. A weather watch is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Beneath a strong mid-level anticyclone evident on
    western US moisture channel imagery, scattered monsoon thunderstorms
    were observed across much of the Desert Southwest. Over the last
    hour, additional development and some clustering of these storms has
    taken place near the UT/NV border. High-based with prominent
    inverted-v structures evident on area RAOBS/model soundings, a few
    stronger downdrafts may emerge with the potential for occasional
    strong to severe wind gusts into this evening. Overall storm
    organization potential appears low given weak flow beneath the ridge
    and 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. Hi-res guidance
    does show additional development/clustering may take place
    especially across far southern NV into northwestern AZ. However, the
    severe threat here will likely remain localized due to the lack of
    greater effective shear and a disorganized multi-cell storm mode.
    Thus, while a few stronger gusts are possible into this evening, a
    weather watch is not anticipated.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9DoGBqNFpy_O1e0vpP_SR5QLXqRmsy-8jiPD8muTPazxQkjFe8hPGK_oMOU4nq137J2315mI3= P0IEGi4E4GjFAS7ujw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

    LAT...LON 37541338 35761366 35081400 34871433 35031497 35541563
    36011615 36351659 37081684 37541660 38041570 38031464
    37941390 37541338=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 15:42:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 181542
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181542=20
    KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1613
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southwest Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

    Valid 181542Z - 181715Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A fast-moving bowing MCS will continue to track across
    southeast MO through 18z. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary
    risk.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar loops continue to show a bowing MCS
    tracking southeastward across east-central MO at around 40 knots.=20
    Trends suggest the line has weakened slightly in the last hour, with
    no recent ground truth reports of wind damage.=20=20

    The air mass downstream of the MCS is heating up, and is
    characterized by dewpoints in the mid 70s. MLCAPE values of
    3000-4000 J/kg, steep low/mid-level lapse rates, and strong
    northwest flow aloft all indicate re-intensification will likely
    occur in the next couple of hours with a renewed risk of damaging
    winds and hail.

    ..Hart.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8JdDHDCCUqSKn_NkRTUCE9vjFOkhNcQdgFSFQTI0anMwCtZPGlImFhjJPpaOTBqvJSKNljO0A= 8f5Yvx9PyA5F06VmKs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 38279060 37838939 36828917 36489053 37229152 37799106
    38279060=20


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