• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0294

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 21, 2022 21:47:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212146
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212146=20
    OKZ000-212315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53...

    Valid 212146Z - 212315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will spread/develop northeast
    into southern Oklahoma over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level speed max over the Edwards Plateau is
    ejecting toward southeast OK. This feature will encourage further
    strengthening of the LLJ across northeast/eastern OK where values
    will likely approach 70kt by early evening. Extensive convection
    across OK is expected to maintain cooler boundary-layer conditions
    north of a warm front that should advance slowly north ahead of the
    primary surface low. Several long-lived supercells are currently
    tracking northeast toward south-central OK where updrafts may become
    elevated as they cross the warm front. Forecast soundings suggest
    ample buoyancy exists across southern OK for robust elevated
    convection capable of generating large hail, and perhaps isolated
    severe wind gusts. There is some concern that areas east of I-35
    over southern OK may need to be included in a severe thunderstorm
    watch -- either new or extended -- to account for this activity spreading/developing northeast.

    ..Darrow.. 03/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tzfRpdJY2srEusSKNvYhnBb9DMUSEwWIikmw-tO1JUZ-PnUgVcSZcXqnEQyIb0UwrOOegP4x$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34779787 34819686 34649585 34149557 33909594 34109794
    34779787=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 16, 2023 20:43:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 162043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162043=20
    TXZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

    Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

    Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

    SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
    greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
    Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

    DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
    sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
    slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
    deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
    15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
    Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
    motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
    250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
    recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
    around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
    MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
    However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
    significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
    for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

    ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fNWb-nfnCBmYK4Awvk2IvlQT7hcTj9lHpgbLRI3kQHlvWXTtbTfhnqwHIvBQJOYjpzG1-TTw= KZzTnLXKr1Ql0yVbH0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32619762 32689786 32919793 33069769 33129718 33089656
    32989600 32759591 32639607 32579644 32579700 32619762=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 24, 2024 21:37:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 242137
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242137=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

    Areas affected...Western Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

    Valid 242137Z - 242330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are
    expected over the next few hours, as storms move eastward through WW
    59 late this afternoon into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far
    southeast Colorado with a dryline extending southward from near the
    low along the Texas-Oklahoma state line and into northwest Texas.
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the
    dryline form southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma and northwest
    Texas. The airmass east of the dryline is weakly unstable, with
    MLCAPE estimated by the RAP in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The
    WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, with some
    veering with height in the lowest 2 km. The strong deep-layer shear
    is evident along most of the dryline due to the exit region of an
    approaching mid-level jet. As this feature moves across the southern
    and central Plains early this evening, lift and shear will support
    supercell development. Although large hail and wind damage will be
    the primary threats, a brief tornado or two could occur with the
    stronger rotating storms.

    ..Broyles.. 03/24/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6oi1fHNkHeyq0qkCIeBWAhktorXnHwWhSG0fCUJDZoENlyqZ3bK0uv4YuJ5ACSlJK4a_HjcWu= Ew5-6hL7Z6YcLnK9pE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35979997 34159994 33320022 32760020 32599949 33179863
    34659825 36879843 38059900 38509959 38670007 38650070
    38430116 37980124 37080041 35979997=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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