• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1610

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 29, 2022 16:25:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 291625
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291624=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-291830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1610
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia to eastern
    Maryland/southern Delaware

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291624Z - 291830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase this
    afternoon initially across Virginia near the Blue Ridge and spread
    eastward toward/across the Chesapeake bay vicinity. Isolated wind
    damage may occur with the strongest storms. Trends are being
    monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating and ample insolation/boundary layer
    destabilization are occurring across the southern half of Virginia
    to the south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective front from
    the central Appalachians toward the Delmarva, although buoyancy will
    be somewhat tempered by warm mid-level temperatures (-4 to -5C at
    500mb) and poor mid-level lapse rates. Regardless, thunderstorms
    will develop and increase through mid-afternoon over the mountains
    and Blue Ridge vicinity and subsequently spread eastward.

    Influenced by the upper trough over the Great Lakes, a belt of
    moderately strong westerlies is noted, particularly with northward
    extent near/north of the frontal zone. This will support sustained multicells/linear segments as thunderstorms develop, and possibly
    even some transient supercells across east-central Virginia/eastern
    Maryland and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. A very moist boundary layer
    and steepening low-level lapse rates could yield some downbursts
    capable of isolated wind damage as the most probable severe hazard.

    ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9OVO2F7ORtt0yK6CZZA4LDUgTSTBykz3BGcJvI-rRacF-Ew39aE30wdK_pgm3Z_DYZC_Q2Cye= A1F9xKTn9bcJu390EY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36897666 36587907 37507911 38817740 38597490 37177583
    36897666=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 02:24:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 180224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180224=20
    KYZ000-180400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1610
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0924 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

    Valid 180224Z - 180400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A small storm cluster may pose a threat of hail and
    damaging wind into late evening.

    DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening east of
    Paducah in western KY. The downstream environment remains somewhat
    favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE in excess of 2000
    J/kg and marginally favorable deep-layer shear per recent objective mesoanalyses. While nocturnal cooling/stabilization will eventually
    result in a weakening trend, a short-term severe threat will likely
    continue with this cluster into late evening.=20

    Relatively strong outflow will likely pose at least an isolated
    damaging-wind threat. Also, while the mode may trend toward linear
    with time, stronger embedded cells may pose an isolated hail threat,
    given the modestly favorable buoyancy and midlevel lapse rates (as
    noted in the 00Z BNA sounding).

    ..Dean.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7tsVxIMEh5DJ54R0iq7D8gMHsC51ohnQwVqQ3rR-CnetiUe5VLqxY3-CLE85_8jbqteGMrxb2= vHtMJiM2nysYzO-fqo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37598786 37618669 36998658 36678657 36698799 36668834
    37598786=20


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