ACUS11 KWNS 291625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291624=20
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-291830-
Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia to eastern
Maryland/southern Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 291624Z - 291830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase this
afternoon initially across Virginia near the Blue Ridge and spread
eastward toward/across the Chesapeake bay vicinity. Isolated wind
damage may occur with the strongest storms. Trends are being
monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating and ample insolation/boundary layer
destabilization are occurring across the southern half of Virginia
to the south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective front from
the central Appalachians toward the Delmarva, although buoyancy will
be somewhat tempered by warm mid-level temperatures (-4 to -5C at
500mb) and poor mid-level lapse rates. Regardless, thunderstorms
will develop and increase through mid-afternoon over the mountains
and Blue Ridge vicinity and subsequently spread eastward.
Influenced by the upper trough over the Great Lakes, a belt of
moderately strong westerlies is noted, particularly with northward
extent near/north of the frontal zone. This will support sustained multicells/linear segments as thunderstorms develop, and possibly
even some transient supercells across east-central Virginia/eastern
Maryland and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. A very moist boundary layer
and steepening low-level lapse rates could yield some downbursts
capable of isolated wind damage as the most probable severe hazard.
..Guyer/Grams.. 07/29/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9OVO2F7ORtt0yK6CZZA4LDUgTSTBykz3BGcJvI-rRacF-Ew39aE30wdK_pgm3Z_DYZC_Q2Cye= A1F9xKTn9bcJu390EY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 36897666 36587907 37507911 38817740 38597490 37177583
36897666=20
=3D =3D =3D
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