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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1608

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 28, 2022 20:09:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 282008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282008=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-282145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1608
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern NY and southern/western New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

    Valid 282008Z - 282145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind and small hail potential continues
    across the Hudson Valley and should spread across parts of
    southern/western New England into early evening. The need for a
    downstream watch is unclear.

    DISCUSSION...While moderately topped convection has spread across
    eastern NY, much of this activity has failed to support sustained
    intensities near or at severe levels. Some recent uptick has
    occurred into the Hudson Valley where surface temperatures from the
    upper 80s and low 90s are common into interior southwest New
    England. It is plausible that convection will yet intensify, most
    likely on a sporadic basis, as storms continue to spread east given
    45-50 kt 0-6 km shear per the Albany VWP. Isolated damaging winds
    and small hail should be the main hazards as convection spreads
    across western New England. Given the poor mid-level lapse rates and
    drier boundary layer sampled in the 18Z Gray, ME sounding,
    convection should eventually weaken as it approaches NH/eastern
    MA/western ME.

    ..Grams.. 07/28/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8xwzl-HHLOgTy_Ne9F0QNXU3yQnxmhhemQ4n4VoBnz_XytXcF8fZiCkorUN9jQMnZXUbxoGLS= pJcp9RLmHfmWczo8Vg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 44117366 44357334 44227261 43847151 43477086 42997100
    42347142 41867216 41647291 41437351 41537442 41697497
    42007490 42897386 43377361 44117366=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 01:38:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 180138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180138=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-180345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1608
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0838 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Far eastern Wyoming...Black Hills
    Vicinity...western and north-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...

    Valid 180138Z - 180345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue in the High Plains.
    Upscale growth is possible as the low-level jet increases. Large
    hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. Very large hail
    could occur with discrete storms.

    DISCUSSION...Two primary clusters of convection are ongoing in far
    eastern Wyoming into adjacent western South Dakota and Nebraska.
    Though convective intensity has been a bit muted thus far, likely
    due to limited moisture, large hail has been reported with the
    activity moving into the Black Hills region. The observed 00Z RAP
    and LBF soundings did show stout capping. Deep-layer shear and
    mid-level lapse rates were favorable for severe storms, however.
    Low-level moisture does improve, particularly in the Nebraska
    Panhandle. It is possible some uptick in intensity may occur. There
    is a small window where a discrete storm could intensify and produce
    large/very large hail. The more probable scenario at this point is
    for the southeasterly low-level jet to increase over the next few
    hours--which has begun given recent VAD data--and promote additional
    storm development and eventual upscale growth. At that time, severe
    wind gusts, perhaps in excess of 75 mph, would become more probable.

    ..Wendt.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-V7LkkqU5KuHIzhFG-YVsbNL0snyheCMZOLh7Z4MC7ZsDNTQ_d6gYP0OCb1m7S8oVbAyqeNwl= uiKUo1zgG6wX-ivUhc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43920514 44730482 44740279 43670109 43480028 42569996
    41780045 41400169 41500264 41940373 42400426 43920514=20


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