ACUS11 KWNS 281932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281932=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281932Z - 282130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...To the south of WW 505, an additional WW is not
anticipated although locally damaging winds will be possible into
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated showers have recently deepened into a few
thunderstorms from central to southeast PA, south of WW 505. The
environment within/ahead of this activity is broadly characterized
by MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. With poor mid-level lapse rates and
weaker large-scale ascent relative to NY and western New England,
confidence is low in a more organized severe threat developing
across the DE Valley and Piedmont vicinity. Nevertheless, with
surface temperatures having warmed into the upper 80s and low 90s,
potential will exist for microbursts capable of localized tree
damage with the strongest cells as they spread towards the coastal
plain.

..Grams/Guyer.. 07/28/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8z7K4auVK-JkrmKVk6dEjt8SHknjggHVvAqGdUps-QvNZglvtnEIbuyo1mavVymBn76_PIkK= DFBydO9C7tPbC6ypNk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41227716 41077522 40827400 40447391 39367462 39397546
39657660 40297741 41227716=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 180116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180115=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-180245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Southern OH into eastern KY and western WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 180115Z - 180245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread southeastward into
late evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving through southwest OH continues
to show some signs of organization, though measured gusts have
largely been in the 40-50 mph range thus far. Moderate downstream
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear may continue to support
organized convection into the late evening, accompanied by a threat
for at least isolated damaging wind. The magnitude of the threat may
gradually diminish with time, but downstream watch issuance is
possible depending on short-term convective trends.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ODo7jpU2k7pSvleRj9_STOgvePRbMTet4QZVyp1coq_jeoH_HBHJWJDRGKtAMaQ9jjwypIXY= RxcNr87ozgmzSMNhDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 37668243 38038367 38308403 39008340 39428300 38788157
38218143 37748236 37668243=20


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