• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 20:29:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 272029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272029=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-272230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

    Areas affected...western NE into far northeast CO and northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272029Z - 272230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late
    this afternoon into this evening across southwest Nebraska into
    northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection has been periodically
    developing near the ND/SD state line. This activity is struggling to
    maintain intensity/organization due to weak instability and modest boundary-layer moisture. This activity will continue to shift
    southeast the next couple of hours and may produce some gusty winds.

    Additional convection is expected to develop across parts southwest NE/northeast CO in post-frontal upslope flow along/near residual
    outflow from overnight/morning convection. Dewpoints in the low/mid
    60s beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates is contributing to
    MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
    around 35-40 kt will result in organized cells capable of severe
    gusts and hail. A large cumulus field is evident in 2015z visible
    satellite data from southwest NE into northeast CO/northwest KS.
    However, vertical development has been slow as morning
    clouds/showers initially limited heating. Convective inhibition
    appears to have mostly eroded, and additional heating should allow
    storms to develop in the next 2-3 hours, though timing does remain
    somewhat uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored for severe
    thunderstorm watch issuance at some point late this afternoon or
    early this evening.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8blYO2jO-_MEthsZpAI5UwNf7V4YhMg3UaymJm4PpyUbWs6jO2EmVeeAO9II_j-p1T3GgSD-K= Qkkwd8XKlFf1597Ax8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41230412 42280415 43050389 43220303 43070231 41910123
    40670034 39620025 39340098 39320184 39800286 40250372
    41230412=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 20:01:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 172001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172001=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central IN and far east-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172001Z - 172200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk is expected to increase across parts of
    central IN during the next few hours. Trends will be monitored for a
    possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a band of modest
    low-level confluence along the southern periphery of a baroclinic
    zone draped across parts of north-central IN -- where an isolated
    thunderstorm is tracking eastward from far east-central IL.
    Continued heating amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding
    moderate surface-based instability and steepening low-level lapse
    rates across the pre-convective environment. This instability,
    coupled with effective shear strengthening to around 30 kt, should
    support organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable
    of large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into early evening.
    Overall storm coverage is uncertain with generally weak large-scale
    ascent, though additional storms could develop within the confluence
    zone and spread east-southeastward into the increasingly favorable
    environment during the next few hours. Convective trends are being
    monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JrpyzJ6jSwqARAku1mG8d501NFmWk2FpP-gmwnsGJJ1f4yG76veeWdCg3L17u-u56wmcviIp= -WkF1cDW9oiHAWklwM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39828493 39148500 38938512 38828549 38748593 38708673
    38748710 38908748 39098767 39678772 40068765 40358758
    40548744 40568719 40528675 40408594 40348523 40228505
    39828493=20


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