ACUS11 KWNS 272029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272029=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-272230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022
Areas affected...western NE into far northeast CO and northwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 272029Z - 272230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon into this evening across southwest Nebraska into
northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection has been periodically
developing near the ND/SD state line. This activity is struggling to
maintain intensity/organization due to weak instability and modest boundary-layer moisture. This activity will continue to shift
southeast the next couple of hours and may produce some gusty winds.
Additional convection is expected to develop across parts southwest NE/northeast CO in post-frontal upslope flow along/near residual
outflow from overnight/morning convection. Dewpoints in the low/mid
60s beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates is contributing to
MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
around 35-40 kt will result in organized cells capable of severe
gusts and hail. A large cumulus field is evident in 2015z visible
satellite data from southwest NE into northeast CO/northwest KS.
However, vertical development has been slow as morning
clouds/showers initially limited heating. Convective inhibition
appears to have mostly eroded, and additional heating should allow
storms to develop in the next 2-3 hours, though timing does remain
somewhat uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored for severe
thunderstorm watch issuance at some point late this afternoon or
early this evening.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/27/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8blYO2jO-_MEthsZpAI5UwNf7V4YhMg3UaymJm4PpyUbWs6jO2EmVeeAO9II_j-p1T3GgSD-K= Qkkwd8XKlFf1597Ax8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41230412 42280415 43050389 43220303 43070231 41910123
40670034 39620025 39340098 39320184 39800286 40250372
41230412=20
=3D =3D =3D
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