• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1598

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 20:15:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 272015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272015=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-272215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1598
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

    Areas affected...Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272015Z - 272215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is probable through the late
    afternoon and early evening hours. Given the favorable thermodynamic environment, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and
    pose a damaging wind threat, though modest wind shear will limit the
    overall severe threat and minimize watch potential.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, several congestus towers within an
    expanding cumulus field across southern MO into northern AR have
    exhibited a steady increase in vertical depth. This comes as
    temperatures warm into the mid/upper 90s and deeper boundary-layer
    mixing removes inhibition. Robust thunderstorm development appears
    probable within the hour as a weak cold front continues to approach
    from the north/northwest and provides more focused ascent.
    Thunderstorms will mature in an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates near 8-9 C/km. Forecast
    soundings and latest upper-air analyses show some overlap of
    favorable buoyancy with adequate deep-layer shear (around 25-30
    knots) to support loose storm organization. Discrete cells, and
    possibly one or more semi-organized clusters, will likely propagate
    to the east across southern MO/northern AR this evening, posing a
    risk of damaging winds given the favorable thermodynamic conditions.
    Overall, the modest kinematics are expected to modulate the severe
    potential and mitigate the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9MsC5j8MMLaNWIxRHehp4dP0jr2o_al-GDuJgp1KpR499m-fKKKlPA4j1F0FJiMY0uP10sxtQ= hWFgFHGD6fMDdF6VDE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 37089455 37519422 37979011 37678973 36578963 35799022
    36259413 36539452 37089455=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 19:42:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 171942
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171941=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1598
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171941Z - 172145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple severe storms capable of producing large hail and
    damaging winds are possible this afternoon. The area is being
    monitored for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are spreading slowly east-southeastward
    over parts of central/southern IL this afternoon, with some updraft organization noted over southwest/south-central IL. These storms
    could maintain intensity as they continue east-southeastward given
    an increasingly unstable pre-convective air mass (around 2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE) and strengthening deep-layer shear (35-40 kt of effective
    shear). While this environment will support organized clusters and
    supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds,
    generally weak large-scale ascent casts uncertainty on storm
    coverage across the area. Convective trends are being monitored for
    a possible watch across parts of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-UObaPInDw1otmnjja9_5xRC5KkMSFinMlvd7axLC4kPxTuJQ_wBHNSZKZewRdMQvE8HBBE57= UTh4xEMid-SgD57bRs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39708760 39328760 38978761 38768767 38158800 37838827
    37748871 37758918 37838953 38028986 38239012 38779021
    39149015 39398996 39628980 39808956 39918926 39998892
    40038850 40058801 39968775 39708760=20


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