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ACUS11 KWNS 211923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211923=20
TXZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Central/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 211923Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions are becoming more favorable for supercell
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a strong (i.e. 50-55 kt at
850 mb) low-level jet throughout much of the warm sector. This
mesoanalysis is verified by area 18Z soundings, with CRP and FWD
sampling 55 kt and 65 kt at 850 mb, respectively. Some convective
contamination may have contributed to the stronger winds at FWD, but
the general expectation is for these strong winds to persist
throughout the warm sector this afternoon and evening.=20

At the same time, strong moisture advection is contributing to air
mass destabilization. Dewpoints increases around 4 deg F have
occurred over the last 3 hours throughout much of central and
eastern TX, with dewpoints now ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s in
the AUS/CLL vicinity to low 60s across much of the Metroplex. Recent mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded across much of central TX.
This is verified by a recent special sounding from St. Edwards
University in Austin, which sampled limited convective inhibition
remaining. Recent 18Z sounding from Texas A&M shows a bit more
convective inhibition remaining.

The improving thermodynamics, supercell wind profiles and gradually strengthening ascent all suggest the potential for discrete
supercells capable of all severe hazards this afternoon, including
very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.
Convective interference may limit the duration of any one discrete
cell, but the environmental conditions do support potentially
long-lived updrafts and intense supercells, particularly over
central TX/TX Hill Country. A Tornado Watch will be needed this
afternoon to cover this severe potential.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tCFGZIq2dSQpDkID5chc2g8zhzWuboOiQAWbFDwKUSlk60x0zzGGt2InJR_JGCTDOHCCI-Ho$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 33279711 33699629 33489532 32669518 31059556 29979616
29849819 31549818 33279711=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 161919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161918=20
TXZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161918Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this afternoon across
parts of eastern TX. Hail will be the primary hazard, but a
conditional tornado threat is also apparent. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of deepening convection across portions of east
TX south of Tornado Watch 68 is noted in latest radar data. Heating
into the low 70s amid mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints is
contributing to moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. However, forecast soundings indicate at least weak
capping may persist. In the absence of stronger forcing, and given
weak convergence with the cold front and dryline still far to the
west and north of the region, updraft intensity may be tempered in
the open warm sector.=20

Nevertheless, weak large-scale ascent and favorable effective shear
could support at least transient organized/strong cells capable of
sporadic hail and gusty winds. Regional VWP data indicate enlarged
and favorably curved low-level hodographs, with 0-1 km SRH values
nearing 200 m2/s2. A conditional tornado threat could develop with
cells within this more favorable warm sector environment if
inhibition can be overcome and sustained cells develop. Trends will
be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Dz3V6wzcTqib4VmLUoLOX4PTTxq3PRhLyXeFZ3Xuc1jzKwVyHpHnJkNvu6fra_OwSSToTfKs= Kpi0GbixRZDKruuNbA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31949674 32029654 32079616 32059582 31879549 31629534
31079526 30249529 29899543 29729603 29759691 30599727
31179728 31669709 31949674=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 241903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241903=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 241903Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this
afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be
from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado
will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection
forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from
far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area
is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume.=20

Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will
help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently
limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general.

As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken
line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells
producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain
relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline
initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more
favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX,
as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong
deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail
across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the
narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft
over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly,
perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker
flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a
supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively
wider area.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_iUmYav2hWf49EeRXIvRM310ZjcE0halZI40ETg-XKOuCMkNHQ6nOA7Aj-Q9KqO5MvHWqaAkp= jK0mW6M1gIemrlis2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084
37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915
37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903
32799964 32590007 32580108=20


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