• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 01:45:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 270145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270145=20
    MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-270345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0845 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Nebraska into adjacent
    northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 270145Z - 270345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A small, but organized cluster of thunderstorms may
    continue to be accompanied by a narrow swath of strong to severe
    gusts for another hour or two, across and east of Beatrice into the
    Falls City vicinity through 10-11 PM.

    DISCUSSION...Convection forced by lift along a strengthening cold
    pool, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent in the right entrance
    region of a strong westerly mid/upper jet, has contributed to the
    evolution of a sustained cluster of thunderstorms. This convective
    system is small, but has become well organized, with strengthening
    rear inflow (perhaps in excess of 50 kt) to the south of an evolving
    lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation.

    Activity has been propagating east-southeastward at a relatively
    modest 25-30 kt. If this continues, based on objective analysis and
    surface observations, it appears likely to increasingly begin to
    process more stable air impacted by last night's prolonged
    convection centered to the north of the Interstate 70 corridor.=20=20
    However, it is possible that ongoing convection could continue to be accompanied by a narrow swath of strong to severe gusts across and east-southeast of Beatrice, NE into areas mainly near and west of
    Falls City, NE through 03-04Z.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/27/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eb-7WTfeQUKsSP0r5EbrCjblq5fZSnboz-x4Jv2-QEFQ5bb1WST_t_emfVQsd8cqYVkfN4sO= MldmRp60y0fNhSVFUE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 40659678 40639635 40389534 40049536 39779588 40229706
    40399683 40659678=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 17:53:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 171753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171753=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern OH...western WV...and far southwestern
    PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171753Z - 172030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
    and isolated large hail will increase through the afternoon. A watch
    is possible for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates a
    corridor of deepening convective towers and isolated to widely
    scattered thunderstorm development across southeastern OH, western
    WV, and southwestern PA this afternoon. Weakly confluent
    boundary-layer winds and continued diurnal heating of a moist air
    mass (upper 60s surface dewpoints) should favor additional
    thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While modest
    midlevel lapse rates may limit initial updraft intensity to an
    extent, 30-40 kt southwesterly midlevel winds (per regional VWP)
    could favor several loosely organized clusters capable of wind
    damage (and isolated hail) -- aided by steepening low-level lapse
    rates and water-loading. Coverage and intensity of severe storms is
    somewhat unclear, though convective trends will be monitored for a
    possible watch across parts of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6O35dxqE4bJ-Kky8GdwOplHPsmS_lBxHqfhAVuOl41evQl_NQuEtCIeuNkvj47YWjRv6niWQ5= KIrSe-sOxkStxw6dFQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40398111 40198151 39978185 39748224 39608254 39478298
    39318332 39158337 38878329 38648300 38368256 38218212
    38168170 38278123 38498077 38928024 39537961 40007932
    40287935 40497976 40568019 40558058 40558068 40398111=20


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