• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 26, 2022 19:37:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 261937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261937=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

    Areas affected...portions of western/central NE...far northwest KS
    and northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 261937Z - 262230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from
    late afternoon into early evening. Sporadic strong gusts and hail
    will be possible with this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Areas of cloud cover has limited heating somewhat
    across portions of southwest into central NE with temperatures
    mainly in the mid/upper 70s. Other areas have seen greater heating
    under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures have
    warmed well into the 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. A plume of
    steeper lapse rates extends across CO into NE, aiding in moderate destabilization across the region. Increasing, vertically developing
    cumulus has been noted along and ahead of the surface cold front
    extending from southwest NE into north-central NE early this
    afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
    surface boundary in NE, as well as in moist upslope flow across
    northeast CO over the next couple hours. Effective shear magnitudes
    around 30-45 kt will favor organized supercells posing some threat
    for hail and strong gusts.=20

    Stronger large-scale ascent will remain north of the region, with
    the front being the main focus for development later this
    afternoon/evening. Areas of cloud cover may further limit convective
    coverage. While a couple of severe storms appear likely, the overall
    threat appears to be limited in coverage, and in longevity of
    stronger cells. As such, a watch is not expected at this time, but
    convective trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/26/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6EDoCZ6jHuEj4r1LHz0D66gkhNiTWx8d-fPcBbIfGyOf9-0A5qmuExGAVrxjv6wJL5e06ChrW= dsdBnlzmIINybtX0CQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41289781 40549918 40209988 39550162 39280232 39220331
    39300427 39640486 39870491 40100479 41100402 41700292
    42310112 42789923 42839830 42759809 42579785 42219756
    41769737 41499749 41289781=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 17:49:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 171749
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171748=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-172015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS into MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 171748Z - 172015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe/damaging winds will be possible
    with thunderstorms that form this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance will likely be needed for some portion of this area.

    DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster in northeastern OK has
    generated an outflow boundary which is slowly moving
    northward/eastward across eastern KS into MO on recent visible
    satellite imagery. A weak front and convectively reinforced outflow
    from thunderstorms across southern IA/northern MO earlier today has
    also advanced southward into the same general area. The merging of
    these two outflow boundaries will likely support parcels reaching
    their LFCs over the next 1-2 hours, as the airmass across eastern KS
    into MO is strongly unstable and generally uncapped per latest
    mesoanalysis estimates (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg with minimal MLCIN).

    Ascent associated with the nose a mid/upper-level northwesterly jet
    will also aid robust convective development early this afternoon.
    Related 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will foster updraft
    organization, with supercells initially posing a threat for large to
    very large hail expected. With time, some clustering of convection
    may also occur, with a greater severe/damaging wind threat spreading southeastward with time. While details regarding convective
    evolution remain somewhat uncertain, the increasing severe hail/wind
    potential this afternoon will likely justify issuance of a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Bjug4ep7HZIYIQOxDD4jUQxudgHHTDyGnNujmXgNyIs8whFoE04QWjZfEcb2Rllt1SVxWDWc= 5RQ7dxwDcQ7cNSFsec$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37999590 38679570 38799396 38399125 36709023 36529154
    36589410 36949450 37379456 37579520 37999590=20


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