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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1589

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 25, 2022 17:03:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 251703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251702=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1589
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1202 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

    Areas affected...Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern
    New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 251702Z - 251900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage from
    central Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey
    through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the Mid-Atlantic
    region. Thunderstorms will primarily pose a damaging wind threat,
    and will likely require a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery reveals several convective
    cells developing along the WV/VA/MD border ahead of an approaching
    cold front and along a weak lee trough axis. Increasing lightning
    counts and cloud top heights have been noted with some of the deeper
    convection over the past 20 minutes, indicative of gradual
    intensification. These storms are forecast to migrate east into central/northern VA during the 17-19 UTC period, and will likely
    undergo further organization/intensification as they encounter an
    air mass featuring seasonally rich low-level moisture (which is
    supporting upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 20-30 knots
    of effective bulk shear (as estimated from recent ACARs soundings
    from the Washington D.C. area and recent KLWX and KDIX VWP obs).
    Furthermore, temperatures rising into the low 90s will support
    steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and winds near the top of the
    boundary layer are forecast to increase to 25-35 mph by mid/late
    afternoon, both of which should foster the potential for damaging
    thunderstorm winds. A watch will likely be needed in the next 30-90
    minutes as thunderstorm coverage and intensity slowly increase.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zH14LhtvG5L0KZxwNeXxRfNQg7EOYtsMjlVm7eBsSDN-PhKI62BuvNDB44mb7YxShlIr1-qH= LXSk-m4UnOsW21ZZDE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37837661 37237799 37377920 37757965 38367938 39077873
    39667761 40127593 40067499 39577446 38397556 37837661=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 01:58:10
    ACUS11 KWNS 170158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170157=20
    OKZ000-170300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1589
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0857 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest and north-central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...

    Valid 170157Z - 170300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible with
    storms moving south/southeast out of Kansas. The spatial extent of
    the threat in Oklahoma does remain uncertain, however.

    DISCUSSION...A potent supercell that moved through parts of
    south-central Kansas has dissipated near Medicine Lodge, KS.
    Additional storms have formed along the outflow boundary near Dodge
    City, KS and atop the cold pool into south-central Kansas. Strong
    shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will allow storms to organize
    and pose a threat for large hail and isolated strong/severe wind
    gusts. The strongest storms could produce hail up to 2 inches (as
    was recently reported northeast of Dodge City). Given some
    increasing MLCIN downstream, how far south/southeast the storms will
    move is not certain. There will be some increase in a southwesterly
    low-level jet this evening that may help sustain some storms.
    Upscale growth could also occur allow further southward propagation.

    ..Wendt.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rr_1fIAV3L8CEQrtH-itTZYR_CVDAwMOOaTpydfXzMWetGLcRf1CU9l1p9ucKOINKwQGU_dN= _nPW24QwSsF6wEuyZQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35829784 35679808 35679857 35939895 36399936 36619959
    36919962 36969946 36989896 36999850 36969796 36159766
    35969779 35829784=20


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