ACUS11 KWNS 250755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250754=20
PAZ000-250930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

Areas affected...Portions of western/central PA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 250754Z - 250930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue to diminish this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms present over parts of
western/central PA will continue to move eastward over the next
couple of hours. Adequate instability for robust convection is
present across this region, with MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. 35-40 kt of
deep-layer shear is also supporting convective organization. But,
recent observations suggest that strong/gusty winds are struggling
to reach the surface owing to the presence of some convective
inhibition. This MLCIN increases with eastward extent into central
PA. Current expectations are for the isolated severe threat ongoing
with the line to gradually diminish over the next 1-2 hours as it
encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Still,
occasional damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado remain
possible until this weakening occurs.

..Gleason.. 07/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_M8wMB08V_PfD8aBA05OXMtIw1TN_v7hShbjRHJ80lGWteJvEruUmK1R8AwpYTP5mIWsAAWe4= mlUeH0Iy3p7wIhOlf0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40838009 41287915 41937734 41947694 41477734 41127812
40597941 40838009=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 170022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170021=20
NEZ000-170145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170021Z - 170145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells capable of large hail and strong to
severe wind gusts will continue southeastward into central Nebraska
for a few more hours. No watch is anticipated this evening.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells have developed within the Black
Hills and move into parts of central Nebraska. 1 inch hail has been
reported with the southernmost storm. As of 0020Z, both storms
exhibit a three body scatter spike on KLNX radar. Copious amounts of
smoke in the central Plains has stunted surface heating in some
areas. These storms appear to be moving along the weak differential
heating boundary caused by the smoke. Shear is quite strong in the
region, but moisture is somewhat limited. The current expectation is
that these storms will continue for a few more hours southeastward.
Some intensification is possible as they encounter slightly higher
moisture into south-central Nebraska. Large hail (primarily 1-1.5
inches) will be possible along with isolated strong to severe wind
gusts.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6bP5gI6wTWmCPL9otm6tj4UNJKuRurM51AMpcRXn1v_YBs1hiL2cmcU9YzDq-pGAeCZlAzvF= 4gISN87eURb2yTJQbw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42340264 42990227 42780102 41969973 41549950 40989955
40820018 41060120 41730230 42340264=20


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