ACUS11 KWNS 250453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250452=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-250645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 250452Z - 250645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An additional watch and/or extension of the existing watch
may become necessary tonight. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur.

DISCUSSION...The more robust convection along the front currently
extends from northeastern OH into northwest PA, which is also within
the stronger instability. Surface observations indicate a relatively
warm air mass with temperatures near 80 F. In addition, deep-layer
shear vectors have a more favorable cross-boundary orientation. This
suggests support for bowing line segments, and perhaps a brief
tornado as 0-1 SRH is between 200-250 m2/s2 per objective analysis.
Trends will be monitored over the next hour and if intensity
holds/increases, a new watch may be considered.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Z5nj4iVkGehrPL_lwivjMkgfvWz7SOqg-OHebKv8ihxh6lhmHvTwpWTHlbzd_mkW89Xprfkf= orYWzmc53zNjj8yeGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41997975 42437744 42717614 42727576 42477528 41887529
41377612 41267695 41277899 41368001 41708021 41997975=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 162330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162329=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...South-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 162329Z - 170100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail will move towards
Pratt, KS and eventually into parts of northern Oklahoma. Severe,
damaging wind gusts are also possible. A new severe thunderstorm
watch is possible for parts of northern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of 2-3 supercells continue on their southward
track through Great Bend and towards Pratt. Several 1.75 inch hail
reports and one 2.5 inch hail report have been received from Great
Bend. Additional, widespread wind damage has also been reported in
Great Bend. Given it current track, some counties along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border will likely need to be included in WW 500.
This will be coordinated with WFOs DDC and ICT. A new downstream
severe thunderstorm watch is also possible for parts of north-central/northwestern Oklahoma, as this cluster is expected to
be maintained and move along a confluence axis where moisture has
not mixed out this afternoon.

..Wendt.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wzI-ihjD8srqtfDM42Llck6WX-ECSdm04TJBeiwzdSVMuuEOXErORtG37gHWK3mTAm4eghnm= H70LmBq_LYjSgJoAgo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38039917 38109842 37939801 37299757 36559733 35699729
35689782 35659846 35989886 36599921 37439937 38039917=20


=3D =3D =3D
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