ACUS11 KWNS 250428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250427=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-250600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...northeast Ohio across New York and into Vermont

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 250427Z - 250600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts remain possible tonight along the
length of the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Despite gradual boundary-layer cooling and areas of
outflow, the air mass remains sufficiently warm and unstable to
support downward transfer of stronger winds aloft. A gust just below
severe limits was recently measured at SYR at 48 kt with a
low-topped cell.

Storms have gradually become more widespread near a cold front, and
strong southwesterly winds just above the surface will maintain
positive theta-e advection and an unstable air mass. In addition,
height falls will continue with the short wave trough, helping to
counteract the cooling low levels.

Given mainly straight-line hodographs and strong winds off the
surface, damaging gusts should be the primary threat. Embedded
rotation could still develop within some of the larger storm
complexes, especially if they can become oriented closer to
north-south.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-qfI57mrDkquxMC-rcdjkY6kl3oAybR9dCOt1Ofyfe4spvRxa7IaLfaJqA71FpSb6bLuuWDo= H-NdeHk-GfU1Dxt8uw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41338067 41148145 41348179 41678140 42128039 42607948
43137923 43467901 43767785 44807579 45227452 45247276
44867248 44167266 43067320 42837559 41338067=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 162246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162245=20
OHZ000-INZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Central IN into western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162245Z - 170015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and damaging wind may
continue for a few hours this evening. Watch issuance is currently
considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity early this evening across central IN. While diurnal
heating was tempered to some extent by smoke across the region,
modestly favorable low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in the
750-1500 J/kg range, generally decreasing from west to east.
Meanwhile, moderate midlevel west-northwesterlies (as noted on the
KIND VWP) are resulting in 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient
for some storm organization.=20

While a few organized storms may evolve this evening, the severe
potential may remain relatively isolated. Weak midlevel lapse rates
will tend to limit the severe-hail threat to some extent, while
generally weak and veered low-level flow is not favorable for more
widespread damaging-wind potential. However, if a supercell or two
can become sustained, then some threat for isolated hail may persist
into mid evening. Localized damaging gusts will also be possible,
especially if some outflow consolidation can occur with time.=20

With the threat currently expected to remain somewhat isolated,
watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oYrIv1evgeII281BhiLDak1Jg0gwE-fD8hdk6LoQObGtHMubIFKsK0m5ZyrQj15U8SLm_iys= uczCJxiq-X5NFQhqzE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40248729 40398672 41208543 40948465 40818392 40568377
40188378 39768423 39398518 39298658 39438732 39688748
40248729=20


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