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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1583

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 25, 2022 02:44:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 250244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250243=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-250445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1583
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0943 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250243Z - 250445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will be possible as a line of
    storms moves from eastern Colorado into parts of western Kansas
    tonight. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is tracking eastward at around 30 kt
    across parts of eastern CO toward western KS, with recent intensification/organization evident. The GLD VWP shows 30-35 kt of
    0-6 km bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust
    front. This deep-shear orientation, combined with moist/deep
    easterly inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints) is supporting
    deep/persistent updrafts which are keeping pace with the outflow
    boundary. The primary concern continues to be severe gusts up to 70
    mph, though a brief mesovortex tornado cannot be entirely ruled out
    given the shear/cold pool balance and expanding low-level hodographs
    within the inflow area of the MCS.=20

    While increasing nocturnal boundary-layer stability casts
    uncertainty on the surface-based severe threat over western KS,
    strong to severe gusts appear possible owing to the
    already-established cold pool.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5KORShOxoP8DnBXT5fHVuTukstgaeuvftQVAUKCCu8hEGEOg1NRRLIsM4DI-GBsATpTUIz1zX= -fQEObcW43jC-394gA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37530166 37530200 38030276 38360289 38710280 39160232
    39210198 39230164 39230118 39000076 38830064 38360056
    37880063 37610108 37530166=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 16, 2023 22:20:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 162220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162219=20
    KSZ000-170015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1583
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

    Valid 162219Z - 170015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A supercell capable of large/very large hail and severe
    wind gusts will likely continue to the south/southwest in central
    Kansas. Additional development is possible in west-central Kansas.
    Later this evening, the low-level jet could promote storm
    development in east-central/southeastern Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...A large supercell in central Kansas near I-70 has
    produced hail of 1.25-3 inches in the last hour or so. Measured
    severe wind gusts have also been observed along the western flank of
    the storm (recently 70 mph in Russell). Current observational trends
    in central Kansas show a pocket of dry/well-mixed air in the
    vicinity of Wichita. Greater moisture exists along an axis from
    Great Bend to Pratt. It is likely that this supercell will continue
    to track south to perhaps a bit southwest this afternoon. Strong
    effective shear and buoyancy will continue to support a threat for
    large/very large hail and severe wind gusts. Additional convection
    has attempted to develop and mature farther west along the outflow
    boundary. Should that occur some upscale growth is possible and
    severe winds would become more probable. Low-level shear is weak per
    area VAD profiles, and the tornado threat is generally low as a
    result. The exception would be along the outflow into southeastern
    Kansas, though storms are not likely to develop there in the near
    term.=20

    Eastern portions of WW 500 will likely not see much activity in the
    short term. With a modest increase in the low-level jet expected
    this evening, the outflow boundary will need to be monitored for
    convective development. Forecast soundings suggest those potential
    storms would pose a similar threat of large hail and severe/damaging
    winds.

    ..Wendt.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5bcj9FayQesWFbEIDdri72JJiROMBU89YOCTlr3HXN3pyGAECKlm9oVrnFYmn7om8UywSEGgP= E6lfc4Mwm38d0i1ssM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38469965 38999919 39179876 39249842 39259818 39229789
    39099780 37759797 37409800 37119830 37129913 37659982
    38469965=20


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