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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1577

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 24, 2022 20:38:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 242038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242037=20
    COZ000-242230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1577
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

    Areas affected...Front Range into the eastern Plains of Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242037Z - 242230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Front Range of Colorado
    will likely intensify through the day as they migrate east into the
    Plains. These storms will pose a hail/wind threat, but a watch
    issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery and surface observations show a
    prominent lee cyclone near KDEN with towering cumulus along a
    pronounced surface convergence zone/lee trough. To the west into the
    higher terrain, thunderstorms are ongoing and are slowly drifting to
    the east. A recent ACARs sounding out of KDEN sample around 1000
    J/kg MLCAPE with minimal inhibition, which matches trends noted in
    recent RAP mesoanalyses. This environment should foster further
    intensification of developing and ongoing convection through the
    afternoon. 30-35 knot westerly mid/upper-level winds were also noted
    in the sounding, which when overlaid with southeasterly winds near
    the surface, should support around 30-40 knots of effective bulk
    shear east of the lee trough axis. Thunderstorms that migrate into
    the plains later this afternoon may exhibit increasing storm organization/intensity and pose a severe wind/hail threat,
    especially if a more organized cluster can become established and
    propagate into the plains.=20

    In the near term, ambient vorticity in the vicinity of the surface
    cyclone coupled with steep boundary-layer lapse rates and limited
    inhibition may support a brief landspout, though confidence in this
    potential is low. Overall, convective coverage and evolution east
    into the plains and away from sources of ascent is uncertain, and a
    watch is currently not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80TAdV0M9uXVIYjhleqBqTFikpy27MdFN75QzycOT6duZOP5TBvi-ouTDIEkgfu6noL6JsL0b= sqd2rfZQUvBjMEM_Tc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37640336 37370384 37330441 37410512 37870549 39310532
    40280550 40570488 40630321 40150290 37640336=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 16, 2023 18:24:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 161824
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161824=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-162100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1577
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southern MO into west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161824Z - 162100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
    potential this afternoon. A watch issuance is possible for parts of
    the area depending on convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
    developing along an east-southeastward-moving outflow boundary
    associated with a remnant MCS over parts of northwestern MO this
    afternoon. Efficient heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s/lower
    70s surface dewpoints) beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will
    continue to destabilize inflow for this activity as it
    spreads/develops east-southeastward through the afternoon. While
    deep-layer flow/shear across the pre-convective environment is not
    particularly strong, stronger midlevel winds should gradually
    overspread the area during the next couple of hours -- yielding
    around 30 kt of effective shear. This should generally support a few
    loosely organized storms capable of marginally severe hail and
    damaging winds initially, with a possible increase in severe-wind
    potential if any localized upscale growth occurs with
    east-southeastward extent.=20

    Veered surface winds and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear across
    the warm sector casts uncertainty on storm longevity and coverage,
    though there appears to be some potential for a watch for parts of
    the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!632qh-7UEIWCd_cqZ8gsI_CL9EbLdqxQS0UQ-dZRS7SrMd6p608ekL9yc4fwhiFq7nyNk5QO8= 2lgbv3vsUNPEQMuyvE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37969436 38099387 38329287 38569243 39149207 39389188
    39589159 39699111 39689066 39579031 39278996 38858988
    38229018 37809067 37499139 37159266 37159347 37259412
    37509445 37759448 37969436=20


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