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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1576

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 24, 2022 20:06:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 242006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242005=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-242200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into central New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

    Valid 242005Z - 242200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging to severe winds continues
    across northern Pennsylvania and southwest New York. A localized
    corridor of higher wind damage potential may emerge across northern Pennsylvania over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Loosely organize convection continues to overspread
    northern PA into southwest NY. Regional VWPs are sampling wind
    profiles with somewhat disorganized structure aloft, but 30-40 knot
    winds from the top of the boundary layer through around 5 km. This
    is supporting numerous gusts in the 20-30 mph range with occasional
    severe gusts (including a 59 mph gust sampled by KELZ within the
    past hour). Furthermore, wind damage reports have been noted with
    this activity despite poor storm organization and limited longevity.
    As destabilization continues downstream, this trend of damaging to
    severe winds should continue into the late afternoon hours.=20

    A corridor of slightly more concentrated damaging wind potential may
    emerge across north-central PA within the next couple of hours.
    Reflectivity and velocity data from KCCX shows consolidating
    outflows within a loosely organized convective line gradually
    becoming more organized. The strong low to mid-level winds are
    largely orthogonal to this line, which should allow for storm
    maintenance across northern PA and perhaps a locally higher
    potential for damaging winds.

    ..Moore.. 07/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oIjVgExqkeHaqrCLRGRfFaWgSU9PT1mw3FRZ6-0__Qk1Fe9mweyfprx4ox6T97-KVNevWWqe= a7GAxZL9moMnLOBb2c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 41407854 42057830 42877767 43297605 42977519 42547491
    41617575 41377599 41167630 41097677 41007753 41107841
    41407854=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 16, 2023 17:32:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 161732
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161731=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-161900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of Long Island into New England

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

    Valid 161731Z - 161900Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

    SUMMARY...The brief tornado and strong/gusty wind threat should
    continue to gradually lessen this afternoon. Tornado Watch 497 will
    likely be allowed to expire by 3 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Embedded convection within a broad area of
    precipitation has struggled to intensify much this afternoon owing
    to very poor mid-level lapse rates. Recent trends from the VWPs at
    KBOX/KOKX show low-level winds have generally veered to
    southwesterly, which has reduced low-level shear owing to a more
    unidirectional wind profile with height through low/mid levels.
    While a brief tornado and occasional strong/gusty winds remain
    possible with any low-topped convection in the short term, the
    overall severe threat should continue to gradually lessen with time
    this afternoon as a southerly low-level jet becomes more focused
    across ME into Canada. Accordingly, Tornado Watch 497 will likely be
    allowed to expire by 3 PM EDT, or sooner.

    A substantial threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding exists
    across parts of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and much of New England
    today. See WPC's Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions 745/746 and
    various flash flood warnings from multiple WFOs for more information
    on this flash flooding threat.

    ..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fPTbDzxV8l4puYNp29c4i6uRdQQpLthjXMvJwm0VIr6KwhFXiI_REE5-Y7umK8hWdeg4ddJ-= u_MbWzKsOB886MmpgI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

    LAT...LON 41087370 41487224 41897165 43117120 43847085 44017063
    43937008 43317049 42467086 41547131 40987227 40617360
    40857377 41087370=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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