ACUS11 KWNS 232330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232329=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin...western Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

Valid 232329Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts remain possible with an MCS as it
moves from eastern Wisconsin across Lake Michigan. An additional
watch may be needed over western Lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed into a more organized MCS over
the past hour with measured severe winds near 50 kt. The leading
edge of the outflow is now moving east at around 40 kt, with a more laminar/contiguous radar presentation.

The air mass over Lower MI overall is less unstable than over WI,
with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE analyzed. Isolated cells over northern
MI have dwindled over the past hour, further suggesting increasing
inhibition. That said, the outflow surge with the MCS is strong, and
may persist into Lower MI. If storm trends remain favorable as
storms cross the lake, a new watch could be needed.

..Jewell.. 07/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gKAliA-hDubYiYaodFZpqeTAQZYYRjTOIRs1BLioaNXXA3A5TG3whlUMepkLgYEcN90CBQM4= wzrGFp9D6FYOUT__uI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 43008983 43108931 43298875 43678828 43968808 44238813
44548832 44808760 45008609 44838543 44568515 43798489
43328520 42488789 42388883 42648953 43008983=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 160421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160421=20
TXZ000-160615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Southwest TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 160421Z - 160615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts and hail will continue
overnight.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage across
the southwest TX Panhandle late this evening. Thus far, these storms
have struggled to maintain intensity and organization, though a 70=20
mph gust was noted earlier at Dalhart, and more recently a 65 mph
gust was noted near Vega, TX in association with a storm that may
also have produced some hail.=20

Moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to
support the potential for organized storms overnight, though
increasing MLCINH may begin tempering the threat to some extent.
Some upscale growth remains possible, which may evolve out of some
combination of recent development in the TX Panhandle and ongoing
storms across eastern NM. Should this occur, some increase in the
coverage of the severe-wind threat will be possible. Otherwise,
occasional hail and severe gusts will continue to be a threat with
the stronger storms into the early overnight hours.

..Dean.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6G79cKmff38QEuVt87gPeLpbmxBEUsyiY_SraNaS_aIy5nlCp2q_y2KharFuFmdP3-t8widXi= I1uIbGpor8iGdp6tAs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35580296 35440201 35260160 34750120 34000101 33590103
33480112 33430177 33580254 33800292 34970295 35580296=20


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