• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1569

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 21:42:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 232142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232141=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-232245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1569
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of NE...southeast SD...and far northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 232141Z - 232245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
    and severe gusts will increase in coverage this afternoon. A watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convective coverage is expected to gradually increase
    along a cold front extending across parts of Nebraska this
    afternoon. Ahead of the front, lower 70s dewpoints and steep
    midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate to strong surface
    based instability and minimal convective inhibition. In addition,
    35-45 kt of effective bulk shear oriented oblique to the surface
    front will support embedded organized updrafts along/ahead of the
    front capable of isolated large hail and severe gusts. Trends are
    being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94sIPgz8iXigE404vP-mdnJWC-HNVQnyZ_DsmR9l6wAwuM4rWo91KKow5b9Ju9-LSNRAMVoiQ= gj1Ob8rHAuerbrlc-8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40470015 41399903 42229798 42939747 43319694 43139604
    42609592 42059618 41669656 40879744 40229821 39969942
    40159990 40310005 40470015=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 23:55:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 152355
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152354=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1569
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0654 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast CO into northeast NM...the western OK/TX
    Panhandles and TX South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

    Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells capable of hail (possibly very large) will
    continue early this evening. Some severe threat may spread
    southeastward with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance
    appears likely by mid evening.

    DISCUSSION...At 2350 UTC, several supercells are ongoing from
    northeast NM into southeast CO, with baseball-sized hail reported
    earlier in Mora County, NM. Relatively moist low-level southeasterly
    flow will continue to support moderate buoyancy this evening, with
    rather long/straight hodographs continuing to favor discrete
    supercells with a large-hail threat.=20

    Thus far, right-moving supercells have shown little eastward
    propagation. However, with time, some clustering and upscale growth
    will be possible as outflows consolidate, which will tend to
    propagate south-southeastward along the instability axis into
    western parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and TX South Plains. Any
    notable clustering would result in an increasing severe-wind threat,
    along with a continued risk for some hail, and eventual downstream
    watch issuance into the OK/TX Panhandles and TX South Plains appears
    likely by mid evening.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!843S7ViUO7qb5a4ps9kM0QkoKGDWupRpZvhrpWFWsHsPnvTP2zWs8b9dBjB-FrJRPr5p9Urti= zjhHn_dDE_8nlOIHFA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34610573 37800459 37730322 37280279 36590241 35530207
    34800209 34370207 33830219 33650362 34320480 34610573=20


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