• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1568

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 19:53:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 231953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231952=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-232115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1568
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...far east-central CO...northwest KS and southwest NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231952Z - 232115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce strong, locally
    damaging gusts into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop soon
    ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. Visible satellite
    imagery shows towering cumulus ahead of the front from Yuma County
    CO toward Frontier County NE. Strong heating amid mostly clear skies
    has allowed temperatures to soar to near 105 degrees with dewpoints
    in the upper 40s to low 50s. Steep midlevel lapse rates greater than
    8 C/km are aiding modest midlevel instability while a very deeply
    mixed boundary-layer is providing steep low-level lapse rates and
    DCAPE values greater than 1300 J/kg. Large scale ascent and
    effective shear will remain weak over the region, but the cold front
    should provide enough focus of brief convection capable of strong to
    severe outflow winds. A watch is not expected at this time given the
    isolated and transient nature of the threat.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_aZV3AA79kBzO7HLoyz52Fak2Thh2uIuhSNPc39caoEAnw4KQwEwJPc0EvAmXfth_e10AfKDr= DHViFVlm0XFW7xamm4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40230151 40810025 40860007 40839992 40769974 40489939
    40029929 39809933 39529952 39180007 38900153 38900198
    39100237 39320254 39610251 39740238 40230151=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 23:40:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 152340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152339=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-160045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1568
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0639 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Western/central South Carolina...far east-central
    Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152339Z - 160045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated potentially damaging wind gusts (40-50 mph) are
    possible with storms moving through western/central South Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent on the southern fringe of a shortwave
    trough has helped to initiate storms in northern Georgia. This
    broken line of storms has become marginally more organized as it has
    moved east into western South Carolina. KCAE velocity data shows
    some areas of enhanced inbounds indicative of stronger downburst
    winds. This is most pronounced with the storm near Greenwood, SC.
    Storms will continue to move into a moderately buoyant airmass
    (MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg). Potentially damaging wind gusts
    (perhaps 40-50mph ) will be possible with the strongest downdrafts.
    Storms will eventually begin to weaken as they interact with
    convective outflow from the Atlantic sea breeze convection.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6aGxcwHGsm4V-CxdPRtVNhMmYCjbvayAQ85iX4ekFnb89VCDlV1sexBvwp3cW7EPn_HCJ0DxK= aa0xumlL1V4fXQRcoE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33458276 35168208 35038084 34608073 33868088 33588108
    33268160 33238211 33458276=20


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