• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1567

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 19:37:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 231937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231937=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-232130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1567
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...West Virginia...eastern Virginia...and southern
    Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 231937Z - 232130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind continues across West
    Virginia into southern Pennsylvania and eastern Virginia. A watch is
    possible if current trends continue.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized squall line continues to shift
    eastward towards the Appalachians with several wind damaging
    reports, including a couple of severe wind gusts, noted over the
    past hour. IR and lightning trends have intensified over the past
    hour as the line encounters a more unstable air mass. A similar
    thermodynamic environment is noted downstream into the Appalachians,
    which suggests that the potential for damaging winds may continue
    for the next couple of hours despite meager deep-layer shear
    overall. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is
    possible for parts of the Appalachians if ongoing convection
    continues to support damaging wind gusts.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ark3mguQ-PufAwyxSKm7EuhqGRPY3htkOEmy75GzIoLjknNUxm7ZLaSi3hTA9Dm_90vTRtjv= xkCUKjCiKlqpndt8XI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39498087 40238014 40837991 41007903 40727784 40097739
    39217743 38597800 37787940 37548044 37808140 38138219
    38508245 39498087=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 22:38:55
    ACUS11 KWNS 152238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152238=20
    COZ000-160015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1567
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152238Z - 160015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail may persist into early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across northern
    portions of the Colorado Front Range over the last 1-2 hours, within
    a low-level easterly flow regime. Modest midlevel west-northwesterly
    flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, and some at least
    transient supercell structures will remain possible into early
    evening. With moderate buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates, and
    generally discrete storm mode, large hail will likely be the primary
    threat with these storms.=20

    The stabilizing influence of outflow from earlier convection, which
    is currently nearing the south side of Denver, may provide a
    southern bound of any notable severe threat. With storm coverage
    expected to remain isolated within a weakly forced regime, watch
    issuance is unlikely.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7IYDLpc0EOsoLJLFf6RCCUi-A1f9eChfK1-tyV9Nzq37Kd8X8mEXSynm0oUBSeExc-xw1Js7J= RTFzuGRJsNUpVI6u0M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40890529 40980518 40990379 40940339 40520324 40140347
    39790402 39810474 39650528 39780542 39990551 40270555
    40520556 40890529=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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