ACUS11 KWNS 231544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231543=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-231715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern MN...northern IA and southwest
WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 231543Z - 231715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and large hail will continue to be possible
across WW 489. The severe threat will develop south and east of WW
489 over the next couple of hours and a new downstream watch is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
southern/central MN this morning, with strong gusts and hail up to 2
inches noted with this activity over the past 30-60 minutes.
Additional thunderstorms are now developing south of persistent
morning convection across south-central MN, and additional storms
are expected to increase into northern IA over the next 1-2 hours.=20

This activity is developing along a quasi-stationary/warm front
extending across southern MN into southern WI. A very moist airmass
with 70s dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates will maintain
strong instability gradient along the surface boundary. The KFSD VWP
is sampling a westerly 40-50 kt jet around 1-2 km, while the KABR
VWP is sampling 45-60 kt westerly flow around 4-6 km. This is
resulting in elongated hodographs above modestly curved low-levels.
This favorable instability/shear parameter space will continue to
foster organized supercells developing into one or more bowing
clusters with east/southeast extent through the afternoon. Damaging
gusts and hail will be the main concern with initial semi-discrete
supercells in the short term. With time, as convection develops
upscale, the damaging wind threat should increase downstream from WW
489. Enhanced low-level shear within the frontal zone and favorably
curved low-level hodographs will support mesovortex formation as
well, and a couple or tornadoes also may accompany this activity as
low-level instability increases this afternoon. A downstream watch
will likely be needed within the next hour or so across parts of
southeast MN, northern IA and southwest WI.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!559XgQ3-Vfq8kboJVCF0KWXYbkA5Cy0q0m9YguiXbv-7yqSdzxw3b7qlAdcjziXCcjby5Mf9L= 3513mdk5mIUlcrWZ8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 45039495 45089406 44989314 44889279 44649146 44329048
43968992 43598981 43328982 42909002 42679037 42489093
42429139 42489223 42619363 42879517 43229559 43579565
44869535 45039495=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 151918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151917=20
COZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central CO along the I-25 corridor

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151917Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
are possible through the afternoon. The severe threat is expected to
remain too isolated for a watch here.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus continues to deepen/expand along
the higher terrain and foothills in central CO this afternoon, where
recent convective development is noted. Continued heating and
related terrain circulations will support isolated thunderstorms
through the afternoon, though coverage and/or sustenance of this
activity may be limited owing to weak large-scale ascent and
lingering inhibition in the lee of the higher terrain. Nevertheless,
a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow atop weak
low-level southeasterlies is yielding an elongating/straight
hodograph supportive of organized storm structures. Isolated
instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible
with any longer-lived updrafts.=20

The isolated nature of the threat and limited confidence in storm
longevity precludes a watch issuance here, though the severe threat
will gradually increase over areas farther south through the
afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WzB1a5oag2JlcX8U8ndRTgGpva6zqaAUhxk4qtVYxQjK6mL8TfqHHWClPHDuPA945f0J_2Mo= -3KmxS7bI-PWHUrqZc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38730426 38360425 38150431 37980442 37920461 37960483
37960504 38000532 38130543 38400549 38790550 39210551
39500551 39610543 39620526 39550480 39490456 39230439
38730426=20


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