• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1558

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 07:05:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 230705
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230705=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1558
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0205 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern IA into northern IL and far
    southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 230705Z - 230930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts may
    increase over the next couple of hours as thunderstorms strengthen.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been festering over parts
    of central into eastern IA over the past few hours in a weak
    low-level warm advection regime. Recently, additional convection has
    developed across eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI as
    a west-southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthened. The 00Z
    sounding from DVN and more recent RAP forecast soundings indicate
    the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong elevated
    instability across these areas. With recent mesoanalysis estimates
    showing MUCAPE generally in the 2500-4000 J/kg range and around
    30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, any thunderstorms that can persist
    should be capable of producing severe hail. Convective evolution
    remains uncertain early this morning, but there is some chance that
    the mainly elevated ongoing activity becomes surface based
    along/south of a warm front. If a small cluster can develop over the
    next few hours, then a threat for damaging winds should also
    increase given the large reservoir of buoyancy available. Possible
    watch issuance will largely be tied to observational trends and
    whether any cluster can develop and move east-southeastward along
    the instability gradient.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wsJ8g4JbTtygdiazek5gCjbaqaWOBT6VZu-WTqieGVGdFRGaSZHgehb41v9AFAjSAswMyqzL= iHnkLGY3kDrfsKnn94$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42129270 42759104 42899040 42958940 42718871 42358866
    41198894 40818949 40689041 40729139 41249249 42129270=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 01:23:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 150123
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150123=20
    ILZ000-150300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1558
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0823 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of Northern IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...

    Valid 150123Z - 150300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind may spread east of WW 492,
    so the watch will be locally expanded.

    DISCUSSION...A modestly organized line of storms has accelerated
    eastward across northern IL, with a few reports of tree damage
    recently noted. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable
    deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z ILX sounding) will continue to
    support a short-term threat of damaging wind, with some threat
    potentially spreading east of WW 492 into parts of northeast IL,
    where low-level lapse rates remain modestly steepened within a warm
    and moist environment this evening. WW 492 will be expanded eastward
    to reflect the potential damaging-wind threat over the next 1-2
    hours.

    ..Dean.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5n6muMEGOpWWTwaXNmlKX7Ps69Fiy5qevJyDx3riACtujUjZBXn9FHQIGes8SU4PG15VuTY4L= 4LizuYqD8ulotdZk1I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40739020 41538952 42078932 42328910 42358779 41858759
    40948769 40758856 40738902 40708957 40739020=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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