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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1557

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 06:33:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 230633
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230632=20
    MNZ000-230800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northwestern into north-central MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486...

    Valid 230632Z - 230800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Mainly a severe/damaging-wind threat continues in the
    short term with a small bowing cluster across northwestern
    Minnesota. These thunderstorms should weaken with eastward extent
    into north-central Minnesota, and downstream watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...A small MCS has persisted as it moved from parts of
    eastern ND into northwestern MN over the past couple of hours.
    Multiple measured severe wind gusts have been noted with this
    convection. Recent radar data from KMVX show enhanced (50-60+ kt)
    outbound velocities occurring at low levels across northwestern MN
    associated with the small bowing cluster. A threat for
    severe/damaging winds will likely continue in a narrow corridor in
    the short term across this area. Downstream observations into
    north-central MN show a less unstable airmass, with surface
    temperatures and dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s.
    06Z mesoanalysis shows a general lack of MLCAPE with eastward extent
    across northern MN along with increasing MLCIN. Recent
    high-resolution short-term guidance show a weakening trend will
    likely occur with this MCS over the next couple of hours as it
    encounters a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Latest radar
    trends suggest this gradual weakening process is already occurring.
    Therefore, downstream watch issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-I85wJx6L2MnO483CGClfHMNKtRuF88Aq5UbF6cRJ4rcMj1NReVR5ynE3bg8dMHUnfbZHvbbN= 5gzBmTEC3MJdTOI2bk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47469655 47729651 48109654 48079528 47889398 47559380
    47029395 46849445 47179670 47469655=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 00:57:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 150057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150056=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-150230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0756 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of east-central Oklahoma into parts of
    central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 150056Z - 150230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for parts of
    central Arkansas this evening as storms may maintain some intensity.
    Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms is moving southeast
    and will enter northwest Arkansas soon. The most favorable
    thermodynamic environment resides in northeastern/east-central
    Oklahoma. The observed 00Z LZK sounding showed steep mid-level lapse
    rates and adequate shear for storm organization. However, there is
    also capping noted around 800 mb. As long as sufficient lift is
    present with the cold pool, some risk for strong/damaging winds will
    exist into parts of central Arkansas this evening. A watch may be
    needed for parts of the area.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8irVFt-0eaVnnXiBIdx0T4hYz8r5u2lv4xHgzttYR4pZ2W-BxGVnKLnLVlFsLlV721CPNtl0X= s8yd0XToRKiIoghq0M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34909535 35799353 36259301 36309293 36399227 36269197
    35799173 35029241 34659344 34419395 34329458 34339502
    34669533 34909535=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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